Sydney’s great baby divide: How fertile is your suburb?

A stark baby divide has become entrenched in Sydney as the number of births climbs in the western suburbs but nose-dives in many of the city’s most affluent areas.

During the past decade, births have fallen by 20 per cent or more in the eastern suburbs, north shore, northern beaches and inner west districts while rising solidly in the Blacktown, outer west and south-west regions.

The number of babies born in Greater Sydney peaked in 2018 at 70,400, but has been below that figure every year since, analysis of preliminary births data by KPMG shows.

In 2024, there was a modest 1.1 per cent lift in births to 60,310 thanks to western Sydney; the top 30 suburbs for new babies were all in that region.

But last year’s small rise in births was not enough to prevent a decline in Sydney’s fertility rate, which hit a historic low of 1.54.

The fertility rate measures the expected number of births per woman and is a key driver of future population and age structure. A “replacement” rate of 2.1 is required to maintain a stable population, not including migration.

Inner-city suburbs led the fertility slump; the lowest rates were in Sydney south-Haymarket (0.47), Chippendale (0.6). Potts Point-Woolloomooloo (0.61), Ultimo (0.62) and Surry Hills (0.73).

There are now 24 Sydney neighbourhoods with a fertility rate less than half the 2.1 replacement level, including North Sydney-Lavender Bay, Strathfield East, Chatswood East and Epping.

KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley, who conducted the birth rate analysis, said the size and cost of housing had a big influence on fertility patterns in Sydney.

“Looking at average dwelling size in terms of number bedrooms, there is a clear pattern that suburbs with larger, more affordable homes are leading the way in total fertility rates across Sydney,” he said.

“But in your classic inner suburbs, like Darlinghurst or Potts Point, where you have smaller, more expensive properties, there are very few kids coming through.”

Lauren Coates, who lives in Drummoyne with her four-month-old twin girls and eight-year-old daughter, said cost-of-living pressures, especially housing, are a constant challenge for those with small children.

“We’re in our two-bedroom apartment, and I’d love to have something bigger for the children as they grow, but we’ll have to stay here for as long as possible because there’s no way I can afford anything bigger,” she said. “The rental market is insane.”

Coates, who is a nurse at an inner-city hospital’s neonatal intensive care unit, thinks more support should be available to young parents.

“Having more children can be overwhelming and scary when you’ve got financial pressures and a lack of childcare options,” she said. “I think improving support would help secure … increased fertility rates.”

Coates is a member of the Australian Multiple Births Association, which is campaigning for an increase in the amount of parental leave and in-home support available to parents of twins.

There have been striking declines in birth numbers across Sydney’s wealthiest districts over the past decade, including the inner west (births down 25 per cent between 2014 and 2024), the north shore (down 24 per cent), northern beaches (down 20 per cent) and eastern suburbs (down 20 per cent).

“Prime suburbs in Sydney’s east, lower north shore, and inner west, despite excellent access to jobs and infrastructure, are seeing little population growth, and they are emptying out of young families,” Rawnsley said.

In the past, more couples had large families, which helped lift the fertility rate.

“But that has dropped off dramatically,” Rawnsley said. “In Sydney, you’ve now got to be a millionaire to accommodate a family with four or five kids.”

Guilford-South Granville in Sydney west had the city’s highest fertility rate of 2.66 in 2024, followed by Spring Farm (2.58) and Leppington-Catherine Field (2.54) in the south-west.

The suburbs with the most births last year were Schofields East (614), Marsden Park-Shanes Park (520) and Oran Park (496).

Even so, fertility rates in parts of north-western Sydney have reached low levels despite those areas having many large family homes.

In the Castle Hill East statistical area, which has a population of almost 6000, only 11 babies were registered in 2024, while in the neighbouring Cherrybrook statistical area, which has a population of about 20,000 people, only 84 babies arrived that year. In those two neighbourhoods, about 70 per cent of houses have four or more bedrooms, but both have very low fertility rates around 1 – way below replacement level.

Birth rates have been much stronger in regional areas than in major cities recently.

In regional NSW, the number of births rose 3.6 per cent between 2019 and 2024, but fell by 9.4 per cent in Sydney in that period.

There was a similar trend in Victoria, where births dropped by 8.2 per cent in Melbourne between 2019 and 2024 but rose by 9 per cent outside the state capital.

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