Minns’ Metro West charade is a betrayal of Labor’s reclaimed heartland

Just four months after they finally wrestled back government from the Coalition, NSW Labor is prepared to walk head-on into a political disaster for no conceivable reason. Premier Chris Minns is willing to ostracise Labor heartland by threatening the future of the city’s most important public transport project.

Labor was lucky to win the state seat of Parramatta in March. A retiring Liberal minister helped, as did the chronic lack of transport to Wentworth Point, the high-density suburb that should be the perfect example of how apartment living can be done. But now, after seizing back the seat which it had not held since 2011, Labor seems ready to turn its back on Parramatta and western Sydney.

In three radio interviews in recent days, Minns was given the opportunity to assure long-suffering commuters in the booming western suburbs that the much-needed Metro West train line – to link the Sydney CBD with Parramatta – will not be dumped. He chose not to give that assurance. Rather, Minns muddied the waters and sent a clear message that the $25 billion project was under a cloud.

Minns’ reasoning is that the project is facing massive cost blowouts at the same time as government services, especially hospitals and schools, are under unprecedented pressure. There is no doubt that Labor has inherited a brutal budget position, with $180 billion in debt amid rising interest rates. The delayed September budget will hurt and there is little Labor can do to avoid that.

Labor argues that, in opposition, it did not have access to the vast information held by NSW Treasury. This is true. However, it is disingenuous to suggest it went in blind to the election and only discovered the extent of the Metro West blowout once it was in government. The rising costs of Sydney’s most crucial piece of public transport were well known.

In 2018, then transport minister Andrew Constance seemingly had a rush of blood to the head and tweeted that Metro West had a $16 billion price tag. The Coalition had learnt the hard way from previous major projects that revealing costings inevitably leads to screaming headlines about blowouts. The government had chosen not to reveal the cost of Metro West. Nonetheless, Constance used social media to throw out a figure, which Labor seized on.

In reality, it was likely the costings were always much higher than Constance’s $16 billion. In 2021, my colleague Matt O’Sullivan received internal documents which showed Metro West would cost much more than Constance’s tweet suggested.

Rather, in March 2020 (notably, before the pandemic and skyrocketing construction costs), the government had been warned that its flagship transport project was at risk of ballooning to almost $27 billion and opening three years late. Constance did not confirm a figure, instead saying the government would not have the final price until the last contract was signed.

At no stage – until now – did Labor suggest it would walk away from the project. Before the 2019 election, it backed Metro West. And on March 1 this year, Minns could not have been clearer: “It’s really important to note that we are committed to, and will build, Metro West.”

Even in the final sitting weeks before the March election, when the then Coalition government introduced legislation to allow it to acquire land under The Domain and along the alignment of Metro West to build tunnels, Labor was an enthusiastic supporter. Senior Labor frontbencher Penny Sharpe told parliament: “We need to build the metro tunnel. It needs to go somewhere. It must go under The Domain. It will not affect The Domain.”

Despite this unwavering support, now Minns is using the cover of an independent review into the train line to prepare commuters for the worst. Perhaps he wants to lay down the worst-case scenario only to become the hero who ultimately saves Metro West. That would be fanciful, given $9 billion of contracts are already signed and there are holes in the ground. He cannot abandon it.

More likely, Minns is preparing to inflict more pain on the western suburbs – where voters helped the party return to government – by forcing commuters to wait even longer for their metro line. It has already been pushed out to 2030.

Minns is also likely banking on the hope that delays could buy his government time to carry out urgent budget repair.

On Wednesday, Minns laid down a challenge. “If we make a decision to axe the project, you could take my head off then.” The premier can be assured that western Sydney and Parramatta will do just that if the city’s fastest growing areas are left waiting for their metro line.

Alexandra Smith is state political editor.

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