Hanson comes hunting for NSW seats, and the Coalition should be worried

If Mark Latham thought he was inflicting the ultimate revenge on Pauline Hanson when he quit One Nation, the former federal Labor leader-turned-rabble rouser underestimated one of the country’s great political survivors.

Soon after Hanson dumped the maverick Latham as One Nation’s state leader, he took his colleague Rod Roberts with him to sit as friendless independents on the NSW upper house crossbench. Despite building a political career on divisive rhetoric, Hanson was not going to tolerate Latham’s homophobic attacks on Sydney MP Alex Greenwich.

NSW Labor turncoat Tania Mihailuk, who was searching for a party after falling out with the ALP, lasted 18 months before quitting One Nation, too.

After hitting a high-water mark of three MPs in the NSW upper house, it looked like One Nation’s run in Macquarie Street was over for good. Hanson had tried – and failed – at a tilt for the upper house in 2011 but when One Nation finally had electoral success, her three MPs ultimately jumped ship.

But Hanson may well have the last laugh. The senator, who has had a near-continuous presence in Australian politics for the best part of 30 years, is storming into Coalition territory, making the most of the federal Coalition’s self-inflicted wounds, which are infecting its NSW counterparts.

Despite securing two MPs for the upper house in 2019 and then a third in 2023 (no doubt helped by Latham’s profile), One Nation is only now setting up structures in the form of branches to launch an onslaught on the Nationals in the regions and Liberals in the cities. The party is being strategic in NSW and, on the ground, members are gearing up for the March 2027 state election.

There is every reason to think One Nation will be successful. Kos Samaras of Redbridge political consultancy says regional NSW, outside the gentrified parts of Newcastle and the Central Coast, will be where One Nation can do the most damage to the Coalition.

“At a state level in the upper house, One Nation could do well at the expense of the Liberals,” Samaras predicts. Then, on the fringes of Sydney too. “If you go out to Camden, absolutely,” Samaras says, “and Penrith too. Any outer-western Sydney seat where voters are seeing their suburbs change is where One Nation could do well.”

Hanson is gloating that there have been 50 One Nation branches set up nationally since the May federal election, with 80 expected by year’s end. At the same time, membership has spiked, according to party officials, although there are no figures publicly available.

About 150 people turned up to see Hanson launch a One Nation branch on the weekend at West Tamworth Leagues Club, smack-bang in Barnaby Joyce territory. The timing was perfect, albeit accidental. Planned for weeks, Hanson pulled a crowd on the same day that Joyce sensationally confirmed he was all but done with the National Party. He would not contest his seat at the next federal election, and his relationship with Nationals leader David Littleproud was irreparable.

Just as Latham was the boost One Nation’s ticket needed in NSW to secure seats in the upper house, chatter about whether Joyce can be lured to Hanson’s team is a boon for her party. If the Nationals are no longer for Joyce, then which party is? “Other than the National Party,” Samaras says, “there hasn’t been an alternative right-wing option in the regions. One Nation is that.”

At East Cessnock Bowling Club last week, the ribbon was also cut on the Hunter One Nation branch with slightly less fanfare (70 people and no Hanson as a drawcard, but the newly sworn-in NSW senator Sean Bell stepped in). That should worry Upper Hunter Nationals MP Dave Layzell. One Nation came close to winning the overlapping federal seat of Hunter in 2019 and, in May, the party secured a 16 per cent primary vote and a 6 per cent swing in that seat.

Layzell is in the firing line but not necessarily alone. In the future, even long-held Labor seats in traditionally white, working-class towns could be One Nation territory. “As Labor becomes more attuned to large metropolitan environments,” Samaras says, “it will be less competitive in Cessnock.”

Meanwhile, in the northern Sydney seat of Bennelong, several Liberal members have defected from the party to set up a One Nation branch. The seat is safely Labor after the federal election. One Nation will not win lower house seats in metropolitan Sydney, but it will probably peel right-wing votes from the Coalition which, in NSW’s optional preferential voting system, could prove a major headache for the Liberals. But the real threat remains with the Nationals.

The NSW Nationals are not as dysfunctional as their federal colleagues. Yet. There is simmering frustration with state Opposition Leader Mark Speakman, and policy differences are starting to cause schisms in the Coalition. Renewable energy zones, championed by former Nationals leader and deputy premier John Barilaro, are shaping up to be the lightning rod that could cause a major split in the Coalition. Even once-unifying policies, such as gambling reform, are showing cracks.

If the Nationals underestimate One Nation, they do so at their own peril. As the Coalition parties grapple to work out who they are and what they stand for, One Nation is completely comfortable in its own skin, as is Hanson. And that is the secret to Hanson’s political survival.

Alexandra Smith is state political editor.