What Barnaby Joyce really wants from One Nation

If there was any remaining doubt that Australia’s two main centre-right parties are in a world of pain after their electoral thrashing in May, this week dispelled it.

As one seasoned Liberal observed: “We’ve got Barnaby [Joyce] talking about Barnaby, Sarah Henderson talking about the governor-general standing down as chair of Equality Australia ... Jane [Hume] talking about the nuclear prohibition, [Andrew] Hastie and Barnaby talking about potential rorts by pregnant women, and Sussan [Ley] talking about Joy Division. It’s total chaos.”

Ley’s call for Anthony Albanese to apologise for wearing a Joy Division T-shirt because of its alleged antisemitic connotations, which echoed Sky News After Dark talking points, may have sounded ridiculous but it has caused Coalition MPs to question the opposition leader’s judgment.

That is a problem for Ley, but the bigger issue confronting the federal Coalition parties is Joyce and his on-again, off-again flirtation with One Nation. Two weeks ago, I warned that Joyce risked political irrelevance if he went ahead with his plan to join Pauline Hanson’s party. That warning stands.

Joyce, just 58, has absolutely no intention of sliding into political irrelevance – but more on that in a moment.

Over the past two decades, a series of parties have emerged claiming to be “truly” conservative, that they represent “real” Australians, that they are the true heirs of the Menzies conservative tradition (never mind that Menzies chose the name “Liberal Party”). Some of the more misguided examples have included Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives, Clive Palmer’s various clown-show parties and Fraser Anning’s Conservative National Party.

In all that time, the only third conservative party that has managed to stick around (and it has had a couple of low moments) is One Nation. (Pauline Hanson’s name was formally removed as part of the party’s name just this week.)

One Nation is riding high, with the past two Resolve Political Monitors revealing a record high 12 percentage point primary vote. Discontent over the cost of living, immigration, power prices and the direction of the Coalition under Ley are all contributing to One Nation’s surge in support.

At the same time, for months there have been private, preliminary discussions among conservatives in and outside the parliament about the formation of a new party that could be the third force in conservative politics. The successes of populist right leaders overseas, from Donald Trump to Nigel Farage to Giorgia Meloni, has not gone unnoticed among conservatives here. Australia has never had a proper MAGA-style movement but some MPs believe it will arrive soon. Nothing has been agreed and nothing has been set in stone. Significant hurdles remain.

A new party would need roughly $40 million in the bank to get started, according to a conservative familiar with these preliminary discussions, and at least a couple of high-net-worth individuals backing it, too.

Tony Abbott’s plea at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Brisbane last month for people to give the Coalition “one last chance” and for a reformed Liberal Party, rather than a Farage-style reform party – at least for now – was certainly noticed.

Some of the discussion has centred on the conservative campaign outfit Advance Australia, which played a critical role in defeating the Voice to Parliament proposal and lobbies on issues such as opposition to net zero. It amplifies the voices of younger conservative MPs such as Andrew Hastie and Jacinta Nampijinpa Price (who once worked for Advance).

Advance Australia recently passed 500,000 supporters on its email list. It raised funds on the back of an email drive after being called before a parliamentary inquiry into disinformation. Its committed monthly donors jumped from 2500 to 3500 in the past two months and its income stream hit $1.5 million a year. Another 40,000 donors have given money at least once and its social media reach is huge. In just the past four weeks, across all platforms, it had 25.68 million views and 1.57 million interactions with followers.

Could Advance provide the funds and the front for a new right-wing party? The group’s executive director, Matt Sheahan, said Advance’s supporters urged it to form a party after the May federal election.

“However, we have no plans to do this as we want to put our grassroots members first, rather than the views of elected officials,” Sheahan said. “We are committed to campaigning on freedom, security and prosperity and achieving a government that will put Australians first.”

That brings us back to Joyce and why he (might) join One Nation, a move revealed by my colleagues Mike Foley and Paul Sakkal before Joyce or Hanson were ready to break cover. Joyce tells this column: “I have seen One Nation broaden its remit as it has grown. Very few have founded a party that prevailed over decades rather than flare out over a couple of terms.

“Pauline Hanson has done this and, self-evidently, it is only because she has a constituency that One Nation survives and it is foolish to dismiss this, or worse, disparage that constituency. The motivation to win back teal seats or the amorphous ‘sensible centre’ has in recent times led to policy that leaves others feeling disenfranchised. One Nation has capitalised on this.”

“Democracy needs all spectrums covered and Australia is fortunate that we have the freedom and culture to offer this.”

Joyce and Hanson are friends and have similar views on issues such as net zero. But Hanson, at 71, was furious at reports suggesting Joyce was about to shove her aside and take over immediately.

Still, Hanson knows she can’t be in politics forever. In Joyce, she may have the perfect successor to keep her political movement alive after she retires.

For Joyce, the attraction is obvious. He has served in the Senate before and knows his way around the red chamber, Senate estimates and the like. He is being ostracised by many (though not all) of his Nationals colleagues, despite his status as a former leader.

And unlike Advance, which has no party branches, office holders or state divisions, with One Nation Joyce would inherit a ready-made party infrastructure, state divisions and a political force with huge name recognition and a healthy primary vote.

If Joyce was to lead One Nation one day, he would be able to professionalise the party, smooth off some of its rougher edges and would presumably try to grow One Nation into a permanent force on the right in the Senate, much like the Greens on the left. He would have far more influence as a balance-of-power leader in the Senate than he has had twiddling his thumbs on the backbench.

Nationals MPs fear that a Joyce-led One Nation could lead to lower house seats being lost in three-cornered contests with Labor and One Nation.

Does Barnaby Joyce have the charisma to give One Nation a MAGA-style makeover and grow its support? Almost certainly. And that would add yet another problem to Sussan Ley’s long and growing list.

James Massola is chief political commentator.