Third of voters want net zero gone as Coalition meets to decide position

Almost one in three Australians want the Albanese government to dump its commitment to net zero emissions by 2050 on the eve of a Coalition meeting where it is expected to formalise its climate policy after months of infighting.

Almost half of those surveyed in an exclusive poll thought that Australia would not meet its 2030 emissions-reduction target of 43 per cent against 2005 levels. The nation is set to fall short of the goal on its current trajectory, but 22 per cent still believed it would reach the 2030 target, while the other 29 per cent were unsure.

The findings come on the eve of a crunch meeting of the Liberal party room at noon on Wednesday to decide whether to keep its commitment to net zero by 2050.

The Liberal Party has been bitterly split over the former Morrison government’s commitment – though the goal was only legislated by Labor in 2022 – with the recent decision by the Nationals to backflip and oppose the target exacerbating the divisions. Liberal members of the shadow cabinet will meet on Thursday for further talks before the party meets with its Coalition partners in the Nationals on Sunday to negotiate a joint position.

The Resolve Political Monitor survey conducted for this masthead found that just over a quarter of those surveyed supported the retention of the net zero target, with 26 per cent believing that Australia should do “everything it takes to meet it”. A further 28 per cent thought net zero should be an “aspirational goal” rather than a “binding target”.

In a blow to the government’s policy, 31 per cent preferred options in favour of abandoning the net zero target – 19 per cent accepting of “action on emissions where affordable” and 12 per cent wanting “little or no action” on climate change. Another 15 per cent of voters were undecided.

The poll of 1804 respondents was conducted from November 4 to 8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 per cent.

According to the federal Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Australia is on track to reduce emissions by 42 per cent by 2030, 1 per cent short of the legislated target, though many experts warn Australia’s large-scale renewable energy projects have stalled, and the country will fall well short of the 43 per cent target.

The Independent Climate Change Authority’s September report stated that without a significant ramp-up in emissions reduction efforts, Australia would reduce emissions by 51 per cent in 2035. Australia’s 2035 target is an emissions cut of 62 to 70 per cent.

Labor (36 per cent) and Greens voters (36 per cent) were much more likely to agree that Australia should do everything it could to meet the 2030 target, while this approach was much less popular with Coalition and Other voters.

Overall, just 17 per cent of Coalition voters want Australia to keep the target and do everything it can to reach the target, while 24 per cent want the net zero target to remain an aspiration, 30 per cent support abandoning the target and taking affordable action, and 17 per cent of Coalition supporters want the target junked.

These findings will encourage Coalition opponents of net zero that their view reflects a majority of the party’s members and supporters, and come at a time when the United States has quit the Paris Agreement, power prices are rising, and cost-of-living pressures are foremost in voters’ minds.

They also represent a major shift of sentiment among Coalition voters since a September 2021 Resolve poll, when former prime minister Scott Morrison was under pressure to raise Australia’s emissions reduction targets and sign up to net zero by 2050.

At that time, support for the 2050 net zero target was 57 per cent among Coalition voters and 60 per cent overall.

Meanwhile, when asked about their willingness to make a personal contribution to reducing emissions by 2030, 23 per cent of voters said they were willing to forgo gas in their home and have only electricity, to go with the 23 per cent who already had homes with no gas.

Almost 40 per cent of people said they already had solar panels, another 20 per cent said they were willing to install solar by 2030, while 13 per cent said they were not very likely to have panels installed, and 29 per cent were undecided.

Home batteries were less popular, potentially because of the high cost still associated with the product, with 25 per cent of people saying they were likely to install battery, 22 per cent not very likely, and 44 per cent undecided. One in 10 said they already had a battery.

Switching to an electric vehicle was the least popular personal contribution.

Just 24 per cent of people said they were likely to switch to an EV by 2030, and only 3 per cent said they already had one.

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