The age where one in six boys is now on the NDIS

Australian children are flocking to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, with 16 per cent of all six-year-old boys in the country now relying on it, as the government begins designing a new pathway to help families leave the rapidly growing $46 billion program.

NDIS Minister Jenny McAllister said further reforms were still needed to make the scheme sustainable, as fresh data shows more than one in 10 children aged five to seven in Australia are participants: 13.7 per cent of boys and 6.4 per cent of girls.

The figures are revealed in the latest quarterly report from the National Disability Insurance Agency, which discloses that about 80,000 people joined the NDIS in the last 12 months, taking total scheme numbers to almost 740,000 people.

The data is further proof that the scheme continues to be a lifeline for struggling children, with families seeking NDIS support for their children’s developmental delays or autism because it remains too difficult to get help outside of it.

But even as the number of participants grew, the scheme came in under budget forecasts for the 2024-25 financial year, as the rising cost of the NDIS comes into focus for the Albanese government before its economic roundtable next week.

Quarterly figures show that scheme costs grew by 10.8 per cent last financial year, lower than the projected growth rate of 12 per cent, which meant its $46.3 billion cost to the federal budget was $520 million below predictions.

The scheme is still one of the budget’s biggest pressures, and its third-largest expense. The latest figures suggest it is on track to reach an 8 per cent growth target set for mid next year, but that number will still put substantial pressure on the budget bottom line.

McAllister, who took on the portfolio after the May election, said there was data in the report that showed the NDIS was delivering more high-quality support.

More than 80 per cent of participants aged 15 and older said they had greater choice and control in their lives, up from 67 per cent, while the number of 15- to 24-year-old participants in work doubled.

“But as the Independent NDIS Review [from 2023] found, the NDIS needs a broader ecosystem of disability supports outside the scheme to make sure it is sustainable,” she said.

“Scheme growth is declining. That’s good news. We are getting closer towards the 8 per cent target, but we know there is more work to be done.”

Key to the reforms is a funding deal with the states and territories that will establish a new system of “foundational supports” that can help people with less intense needs still access disability support. Children are a particular focus area of the changes, which were supposed to start on July 1 but have been deferred until the end of the year as negotiations continue between federal and state governments.

The number of children joining the scheme each month continues to be one of its greatest pressure points. The proportion of all five to seven-year-old children on the NDIS grew from 10 per cent to 10.2 per cent in just three months to June 2025. The proportion of six-year-old boys – who have the highest participation rate of all demographics – grew from about 15 per cent to 16 per cent, or just more than one in six.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, when asked in July whether he was happy with the number of young children on the scheme, said: “No, I’m not.”

“We need to make sure that it is made more sustainable,” he said at a Sky News forum. “We are working through the reform issues as well, with state and territory governments.

“Certainly, the vision of the NDIS wasn’t that those sort of numbers ... quoted, go on the system.”

But he said it was important that reform be worked through carefully, “because it’s very easy for vulnerable people to feel like their support is threatened”.

“We don’t want that. People who need the NDIS need to keep it, but also there were massive rorts in the system. That’s the truth,” Albanese said.

The latest scheme report said the agency had started work to design an early intervention pathway for children under nine years old who have developmental delays or disabilities.

“A high-level concept has been developed that covers major stages of the pathway experience,
including connecting with the NDIS; applying for access; assessment of support needs; the budget setting and planning process; [and] implementing a plan and engaging services,” the report said.

It is also seeking to improve how progress towards early intervention outcomes is monitored, and to help children transition out of the NDIS if they do not need long-term support.

As this masthead reported, there has also been an increase in older children’s participation, which poses a challenge for the Albanese government’s attempts to control the scheme’s growth because it shows families are continuing to seek NDIS support even after early intervention pathways end when a child turns nine.

The agency said it was co-designing changes to the scheme with parents and carers who had lived experience, as well as a children’s expert advisory group, which was providing advice on best practice.

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