Recognising Palestine now is virtue signalling, says veteran Middle East negotiator

Sweeping sanctions on Israel would be the most effective way for Australia to try to change the Netanyahu government’s behaviour in Gaza and the West Bank, a veteran Middle East peace negotiator has argued as the Albanese government blocks a far-right Israeli MP from travelling to Australia.

Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke confirmed on Monday that the government had banned Israeli politician Simcha Rothman, a member of Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition, from travelling to Australia for a speaking tour scheduled this week.

It is believed to be the first time a sitting Israeli politician has been denied a visa for a planned visit to Australia since the war in Gaza began almost two years ago.

Aaron David Miller, who advised six United States secretaries of state on Middle East policy, said moves by Australia and other Western democracies to recognise a Palestinian state next month would be meaningless at best and counterproductive at worst.

“This is, in my judgment, virtue signalling. It will have no impact in altering the behaviour or the policies of the two major combatants,” Miller, now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told this masthead when asked about the recognition push.

“In fact, you could argue that all it’s really doing is driving Israel more to their own corner, and creating this false sense, on the part of Hamas, that if they just hold out a bit longer, good things will happen for them.”

Miller continued: “If the Europeans were serious about this, if Australia were serious about getting Israel’s attention, why don’t they impose bilateral sanctions? Why not impose travel bans?”

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich last week announced a major expansion of settlement building in the occupied West Bank, declaring it “definitively buries the idea of a Palestinian state, simply because there is nothing to recognise, and no one to recognise”.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that France’s decision to recognise Palestine emboldened Hamas to play hardball in negotiations to secure a ceasefire in the war in Gaza.

Asked about Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s stated desire for Australian recognition of Palestine to be more than a gesture, Miller said: “Yeah, well, that’s exactly what it is … It doesn’t matter, and it will have no impact. If Britain, France and Germany and Canada have had no impact then what does the Australian government think it’s doing?”

France, the United Kingdom and Canada have announced plans to recognise Palestine at the United Nations General Assembly in September. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has indicated his nation is not ready to recognise a Palestinian state, but has announced an embargo on weapons sales to Israel.

Miller said he understood if the Albanese government’s recognition decision was driven by domestic politics in Australia or moral outrage about the war in Gaza and settlement building in the West Bank.

“I just don’t understand the instrumental motivation. What is it designed to actually accomplish on the ground?” he asked. “I’ve heard a lot of Australian governmental bumper stickers, but nothing that even smacks of a strategy.”

He said he had not heard any of the leaders involved explain why now was the right time to recognise a Palestinian state.

“The Australians have had no experience in this region,” he said. “The British and the French have, and they should know that the Middle East is literally littered with the remains of great powers, their schemes, their dreams, their ambitions, their peace plans.”

Albanese told Sky News on Monday: “The international community is saying we need a path to peace and security in the Middle East. Now, it’s not enough to just say we’ll keep doing exactly what we have been doing.”

Albanese said that “for the people who are saying this is the wrong direction, they need to come up with an alternative pathway because, quite clearly at the moment, it is not providing full peace”.

The government confirmed on Monday that it had banned Rothman, who has made inflammatory statements including describing Gazan children as “enemies”, from travelling to Australia for three years.

He was scheduled to travel to Australia for a speaking tour this week, including events in Sydney and Melbourne.

“Our government takes a hard line on people who seek to come to our country and spread division,” Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke said. “If you are coming to Australia to spread a message of hate and division, we don’t want you here.”

Australian Jewish Association chief executive Robert Gregory, whose group was organising some of Rothman’s planned events, said: “The timing of the cancellation at the last minute was spiteful and intended to cause maximum harm to the Australian Jewish community … Israel is fully justified in taking strong measures in response to this and we have briefed contacts in the Trump administration who are also concerned about events in Australia.”

Australia Palestine Advocacy Network President Nasser Mashni welcomed the decision, saying: “Rothman has a documented record of dehumanising Palestinians and advocating crimes against humanity. He should never have been granted a platform in Australia.”

Earlier this month, the Department of Home Affairs cancelled a visa it had issued to a Palestinian woman who allegedly celebrated Hamas’ October 7, 2023, massacre.

The government last year denied a visa to former Israeli politician Ayelet Shaked and has imposed travel bans on Smotrich and fellow far-right cabinet member Itamar Ben-Gvir for extremist rhetoric.

Miller said Australia should be extremely wary of accepting any assurances – including promises to hold elections – from the “nepotistic, corrupt, feckless” Palestinian Authority, led by 89-year-old president Mahmoud Abbas.

“Having played this card, they’ll get nothing more out of the Palestinians,” the author of several books, including The Much Too Promised Land: America’s Elusive Search for Arab-Israeli Peace, said.

Miller helped plan the 1991 Madrid Peace Conference that eventually led to the Oslo Accords, and played a key role in the Camp David summit of 2000, in which then US president Bill Clinton failed to broker a historic Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement.

He said that, following the October 7 attacks and the war in Gaza, the two sides were further apart on the core issues than at any time in recent history. It would be “an immediate prescription for failure” if Netanyahu and Abbas were to meet for peace talks today, he said.

Miller said he still believes a two-state solution is the only viable way to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but this will require empowered, committed leaders who are willing to make historic concessions.

Miller is famous for popularising the idea that the US has acted as “Israel’s lawyer” in peace negotiations rather than an evenhanded intermediary, and last year said he “can’t imagine a worse leader” for Israel in these times than Netanyahu.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.