Older and greyer: The NIMBY suburbs fighting development even as population falls

Communities across Sydney and Melbourne pushing back hard against plans to build more homes and increase population densities have suffered some of the biggest drops in resident numbers since before the start of the pandemic.

Figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed inner-city areas which have become battlegrounds between NIMBYs and YIMBYs are losing residents and greying at much faster rates than other parts of the capitals, as state governments seek to lift population density.

In the lower north shore Sydney council area of Willoughby, the number of children under the age of four tumbled by almost 1000, or 22.5 per cent, between 2019 and 2024. Its total population increased by just 804 over the same period.

NSW Premier Chris Minns this week called out opposition from the local community to a plan for an 11-storey set of units in the Willoughby suburb of Castlecrag, where only 33 homes have been built over the past 35 years.

It is not just Willoughby where populations are greying and losing residents. Waverley, Mosman, Hunters Hill and Woollahra councils – all at the centre of major development battles – are suffering the same problem.

It’s a similar situation in Melbourne, where opposition to increased density associated with the state government’s proposed suburban rail link is intensifying in the Bayside council area.

The number of children under the age of 14 slumped by almost 10 per cent, or 1859, between 2019 and 2024 in Bayside. Over the same period, its total population increased by just 0.9 per cent.

In Sydney, councils to have depopulated since 2019 include Woollahra (down 1717), Inner West (1026), Mosman (767), Randwick (689) and Hunters Hill (365). In Melbourne, Brimbank lost 8619 people, Boroondara lost 1655, Hobsons Bay lost 185, and Knox lost six.

By contrast, the fastest-growing suburbs continue to be greenfield areas on the outskirts of both capitals that are struggling under the weight of a lack of infrastructure, ranging from sewerage and electricity to schools and police stations.

Wyndham council in Melbourne’s west has added 63,808 residents since 2019, while neighbouring Melton grew by 54,162.

In Sydney, the Camden council area has added 36,427 residents since 2019. To the city’s north-west, The Hills Shire Council area has increased by 35,510.

Those councils are between 30 and 70 kilometres from the CBD in each city.

Centre for Independent Studies’ chief economist Peter Tulip described the councils with falling populations as a list of NIMBY – “not in my backyard” – strongholds.

He said the NSW and Victorian state governments were leading the nation in trying to find ways to increase density and improve affordability, but faced a battle from those who did not want change.

“As you enter these council areas, you can see the signs saying ‘newcomers not welcome’,” he said.

“As you walk around the eastern suburbs or the lower north shore, all you can see is a sea of grey hair. We’re denying our children the chance to live in the suburbs that we grew up in.”

Urban Development Institute of Australia Victoria chief executive officer Linda Allison said the figures showed that the affordability issues confronting people were contributing to the depopulation of inner Melbourne.

“We know that the cost of a three-bedroom apartment in these areas is at a minimum of $1.5 million and it’s just not affordable,” she said.

“People are moving out of these areas to places that are more affordable. The prices there are driving people away.”

While most inner-city suburbs are losing children residents, their number of older Australians is growing.

The Woollahra council area is at the centre of a Minns government plan to build a railway station, which would anchor a large increase in housing density.

Since 2019, the number of children under the age of four in the council area has dropped by 700, or 23.4 per cent. Over the same period, there has been a 25 per cent jump in people aged between 75 and 79, and a 24 per cent lift in 80- to 84-year-olds.

This week, Minns complained that opponents to change effectively wanted their suburbs to become museum exhibits.

“A city is an organic, living thing, and it needs to evolve with the times,” he said.

It’s a similar story in Boroondara, which takes in the inner east Melbourne suburbs of Kew and Camberwell. The population in the council area fell by 1655 between 2019 and 2024, but the number of people over the age of 75 increased by 14.4 per cent, or 2009.

The government has set a target of 1.2 million new homes by mid-2029. But Deutsche Bank Australia’s chief economist Phil O’Donaghoe said it would struggle to hit the target if the focus was on standalone homes rather than apartments.

He said in 2019, the country was building 82 apartments for every 100 standalone homes. This year, it has fallen to 55 apartments for every 100 homes.

“Put simply, houses cost more than apartments. And right now, Australia is building more houses and fewer apartments,” he said.

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