Joyce division: Why Ley’s arch-conservative rivals are cutting through

The likeability of right-wing populist MPs including Pauline Hanson, Barnaby Joyce and Andrew Hastie is surging among voters, in findings that internal critics of Sussan Ley could use to argue the Coalition is on the wrong track.

Ley, a member of the Liberals’ moderate faction, wants to move the Coalition back to the political middle ground after Peter Dutton’s shellacking at the May 2025 election.

The party is bitterly split on preserving or ditching net zero emissions by 2050. While the opposition leader privately supports the policy, the Liberals are expected to copy the Nationals and formally drop the two-word target on Wednesday, in a further blow to the leader’s authority.

It’s tough times for a centrist. The latest Resolve Political Monitor, which surveyed 1804 respondents and was conducted from November 4 to 8, tracks a big surge in support for a trio of MPs all well further to the right.

Hanson’s net likeability rating has risen from minus 13 percentage points in December 2024 to plus eight percentage points in the latest survey, a 21-point turnaround in just under a year.

This included a jump in enthusiasm of seven percentage points in just the last month, a period in which this masthead revealed Joyce is actively considering joining forces with her in One Nation.

On Sunday, Hanson posted photographs of her affectionate catch-up at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Florida with UK Reform party leader Nigel Farage, the canny right-wing populist surging in the British polls.

It’s a similar story for Joyce. Critics have long argued that he is a drag on the Coalition vote, but the New England MP’s net likeability has improved from minus 22 percentage points last Christmas – political kryptonite – to minus eight percentage points in this poll, a 14-point turn around.

The veteran Nationals MP, who will spend his Christmas break weighing up the prospect of joining One Nation, doesn’t need everyone to like him. He has a net likeability rating of plus 16 per cent with Coalition voters, and a net likeability rating of 22 per cent with One Nation voters.

Overall, 26 per cent of voters said they would be more likely to vote for One Nation if Joyce were to become leader one day compared to 22 per cent of voters who were less likely to back the party if he was in charge, while 53 per cent said it made no difference.

In a warning to Ley and Nationals leader David Littleproud, 33 per cent of Coalition voters said they were more likely to vote for One Nation if Joyce was leader, just 19 per cent less likely, and 48 per cent undecided.

These findings could strengthen Joyce’s resolve to quit the Nationals and make his party colleagues nervous about allowing the two-times former leader to exit.

Hastie, who resigned from shadow cabinet two months ago to hold forth on migration, climate and other conservative flashpoints, has also seen his net likeability rise from plus four in September to plus six in October to plus eight now.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had a net likeability rating of minus one, up 16 percentage points from minus 17 last December, and Ley had a net likeability rating of minus one, sliding down from the plus 11 she scored in July, the first poll after she took over as leader.

Hanson, Joyce and Hastie have tapped a deep well of discontent as Australians struggle with housing costs and power bills, and that the issues the trio talks about – immigration, energy security, cost of living and reviving Australian manufacturing – resonate with voters.

Opponents of Ley will be tempted to use this latest survey to argue the opposition leader has already moved the Liberals too far to the centre or worse, to argue that she is too blancmange and that voters have stopped listening.

Supporters of Ley will counter that there are many, many more votes to be won back in the political centre, including the swag of seats taken by teals, and Ley must be given time and clear air to cut through in the cities.

But if the Nationals survivor does finally decide to join One Nation, it looks like both he, Hanson and the party she helped found two decades ago would all benefit.

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