‘It’s a farce’: Treasury reveals only one number in play for Albanese’s climate target

Australia’s long-awaited 2035 climate target has been all but locked in for months, and even potentially before the last election, Greens leader Larissa Waters claims, following revelations from Treasury officials.

The Albanese government is set to reveal its long-awaited emissions-reduction goals for 2035 later this week as its political opponents, industry groups and climate change deniers have ramped up their lobbying efforts before the big reveal.

Under questioning from Waters during a Senate inquiry, Treasury’s first assistant secretary, Dr Alex Heath, confirmed her department had for months only been conducting modelling on the economic ramifications of one specific figure rather than a range of different options.

“Have you modelled one particular number?” Waters asked.

“The nature of the modelling we have done has a point estimate for 2035,” Heath said.

“That is a function of the model we have and the difficulty in dealing with a range of numbers.”

Australia has committed to cut emissions 43 per cent by 2030, and under the Paris Agreement, nations are required to upgrade their targets every five years.

Local rules stipulate Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen cannot set his upgraded target until he considers advice from the Climate Change Authority (CCA), headed by former NSW Treasurer Matt Kean.

The CCA delayed its report to government beyond the end of last year and the federal election in May, citing international disruption from US President Donald Trump’s anti-renewable energy agenda.

That report is now with the government and, while not public, it is believed Kean recommended a target to cut emissions by between 65 and 75 per cent. It is widely expected that the government will opt for a goal at the lower end of Kean’s target range.

Heath declined to reveal exactly what the target would be during a hearing on Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment report.

She said she thought that Treasury had started to model the government’s target before the May 3 election, but said she would take the question on notice to confirm the point at a later date.

“I think that’s right, but I would much prefer to take it on notice,” Heath told Waters during the inquiry.

Waters called a press conference on Tuesday to air her concerns.

“It’s almost like the climate risks and the CCA’s advice don’t really matter because the prime minister decided what the target was going to be before the election,” she said.

“[Treasury] have been tasked with modelling a single number, a single target for 2035, not a range, not some options that might factor in different levels of climate risk or different levels of economic opportunity or avoided costs.”

Waters claimed the prime minister had delayed the announcement to avoid controversy over a 2035 target designed to appease vested interests in big business.

“He’s just doing what Woodside and Glencore and the other big polluters want him to do. It’s just a farce,” she said.

A government spokesperson denied Waters’ claims and said it had not finalised its 2035 target and was considering a range of options.

“The cabinet has not decided on its 2035 target yet,” the spokesperson said.

“We will make a decision on a target informed by the advice from the CCA.”

The government has ensured the timing of its climate target announcement follows a shock warning over the costs of global warming with the release on Monday of Australia’s inaugural National Climate Risk Assessment, which predicted catastrophic consequences for the nation if global temperatures continue to climb.

It forecast that if global temperatures climb by 3 degrees, 1.5 million Australians will be directly affected by sea level rises and coastal flooding risks by 2050, while heat-related deaths would increase by 444 per cent in Sydney and 250 per cent in Melbourne.

Scientists have found that if nations do not achieve their emission reduction targets under the Paris Agreement, the Earth will heat by 3 degrees or more by 2050 to 2100.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Australia must act now to curb the “massive cost” of global warming.

“Climate change is going to have an impact with more extreme weather events, more intensity, more economic cost.”

Replacing coal plants with wind and solar-powered electricity will deliver the vast majority of emission cuts needed to hit the 2030 climate target, and the government is aiming to raise the share of renewable energy in the grid to 82 per cent by the end of the decade.

The Albanese government announced on Tuesday that it has committed $1.1 billion to help commercialise local production of low-carbon liquid fuels, in a bid to help the transport industry cut emissions from industries like aviation and heavy haulage.

Low carbon liquid fuels include ethanol from sugarcane and biodiesel from vegetable oils.

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen released figures on Tuesday which he said demonstrated the Commonwealth’s flagship renewable energy underwriting program, known as the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS), was cutting emissions and boosting the economy.

Its latest round delivered tenders for 16 big batteries that could supply more than 16 gigawatt hours of electricity by 2030, enough to support the peak load of more than 3.5 million households.

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