‘Exquisite timing’: How Albanese, through preparation and some luck, won over Trump

When US President Donald Trump pulled out his trademark Sharpie to ink a minerals compact with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, the tie-up seemed neat as could be.

Behind the scenes, the deal had been faltering for months. Negotiations went right down to the wire to seal it before the meeting on Tuesday, Australian time.

Trade Minister Don Farrell had nearly finished work on Monday when a brief landed on his desk at about 5pm. Funding for two critical minerals projects that would be packaged up into the headline $US8.5 billion ($13 billion) pact required his signature. That calmed Farrell’s nerves. The resources deal, crucial to the success of the White House visit, was on track.

The Australian side first offered guaranteed access to critical minerals, which are essential to everything from electric vehicle batteries to AI chips and fighter jet navigation systems, in April when Trump announced his “liberation day” tariffs.

“They were mildly interested,” Farrell said on Tuesday. “But it took time to get them to understand what we were offering that nobody else was offering.”

“[US ambassador] Kevin Rudd just kept persisting with it. And the penny dropped when the Chinese said ‘we’re not supplying rare earths anymore’.”

China’s Ministry of Commerce announced on October 9 that it would restrict exports of five rare earth elements to the United States from mid-November. The rules would apply even to products manufactured outside China from raw ingredients produced inside the country, turning the screws on the US.

Trump responded by threatening massive new tariffs on China, presenting Australia with an opportunity. “Everything fell into place towards the end,” Farrell told this masthead. “The timing was exquisite.”

Albanese had tried to meet with Trump for months. The president pulled out of a meeting with Albanese at the G7 in June, at which point Albanese, demonstrating mild panic, suggested a snap trip to a European NATO summit to catch Trump.

But the nine-month gap between Trump’s inauguration and his first formal meeting with Albanese worked well for the government in other ways besides escalating the importance of Australia’s rare earth assets.

It gave Labor time to create goodwill with the US by working up ribbon-cutting announcements on rare earths, superannuation fund investment in America and buying billions of US defence gear. At the same time, Australia’s announcement in August it would recognise a Palestinian state faded into the rearview mirror, especially as Trump won a peace deal in the region.

Marco Rubio’s ascension in the White House, where since the middle of the year he has been national security adviser as well as Secretary of State, was a boon for Australia, too.

World leaders who met Trump earlier in the president’s term, such as Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, fared far worse than Albanese. Rubio, a traditional Republican hawk who sees Russia and China as major adversaries, has not gone along with the administration’s isolationist instincts. Wong developed an important relationship with Rubio (he bought a US World Cup soccer ball for her daughter), as did Defence Minister Richard Marles with Vice-President JD Vance.

“We had a better sense as time went on of who had influence in the administration, who didn’t, and what might work,” one well-placed source said.

Albanese’s office also developed a solid line of communication with Trump’s chief of staff Susie Wiles, viewed as a steady pair of hands in a chaotic administration.

Political heat had also come out of the US demands for allies to boost defence spending above 3 per cent of GDP after Trump secured spending hikes from NATO nations in August. Australia had months to put out a series of new defence announcements to create a more compelling argument than Albanese’s initial response, which had been to dismiss the importance of spending targets.

“What we don’t do is do what the opposition did during the election campaign where they announced an amount of money, they couldn’t say where the money was coming from and they couldn’t say what it was for,” Albanese said in June. “That makes no sense.”

“What we need is things that defend us in real terms and that’s what we’ll provide.”

In the months since, the government made a long series of funding announcements including $12 billion for an AUKUS-linked base in WA, $1.7 billion for underwater drones, $850 million for long-range missiles from Newcastle and, as announced at the White House, billions for Apache helicopters.

Australia also used the delay to remove restrictions on US beef imports. On Australian shores, Albanese insisted the move was unrelated to keeping Trump onside. In Washington, Rudd shared the beef announcement far and wide among Trump’s key congressional allies as a way to win brownie points.

While the government was laying the groundwork for a meeting with Trump, the opposition was using the spectre of Albanese appearing unable to secure a meeting with the president to tear strips off the government.

“The personal relationship between two leaders that needs to exist now, not later, and we’ve got a prime minister who is a complete bystander in all of this,” Opposition Leader Sussan Ley said in July. For a disunited opposition, the clear attack line was a boon.

Coalition foreign affairs spokeswoman Michaelia Cash noted pointedly in September that it had been 317 days since Trump was elected. “Mr Albanese has still not met him face to face,” she said.

One Labor figure said the prime minister seemed to be “kissed on the arse by a rainbow”, borrowing a phrase attributed to Paul Keating to denote luck. But that luck allowed the government to do the work it required to have the meeting come off with barely a hitch.

And despite the pressure to meet Trump, Albanese remained calm and gave no guarantees. “We will sit down at some stage and have a face-to-face meeting,” Albanese said.

That attitude paid off, mirroring the benefit Albanese gained from Trump via another delay. Albanese had considered calling the federal election around Australia Day, was convinced to wait and then forced to delay by Cyclone Alfred. That gave time for Labor ministers to link Dutton to Trump, whose popularity was diving as he berated Zelensky.

Still, ministers such as Farrell were nervous down to the last minute. Final negotiations over rare earths were not the only thing on their mind. Albanese’s advisers were worried about former secretary of defence Donald Rumsfeld’s dicta of “unknown unknowns” that could trigger Trump’s ire. Just last month, ABC journalist John Lyons’ questions about Trump’s business interests had caused an eruption of anger from the president.

Even when Albanese knew the White House meeting was nearly guaranteed at the time of the United Nations General Assembly trip last month, the government chose not to make it public for fear of another last-minute upset, instead leaving it to the White House to make it public.

Albanese took reading material on foreign policy to his Palau holiday before heading to Washington. His ministerial colleagues, however, say they saw no need to coach Albanese on dealing with Trump as an individual.

Foreign Minister Penny Wong, one of Albanese’s closest confidantes, told this masthead that Albanese’s background was key to understanding how he builds relationships better than most. Albanese has previously spoken about witnessing domestic violence during his childhood. Wong also said leading a faction in Labor that could not rely on numerical dominance was important to understanding his style.

“I’ve observed him over the years. One of his great strengths is his ability to deal with disagreement and conflict in a way that gets outcomes,” Wong said.

“I didn’t think he needed advice about that [how to manage Trump].”

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