Canavan is a perfect pick for a fight with One Nation – but could hurt the Coalition

Matt Canavan is the high-risk, high-reward choice as the new Nationals leader.

The Queensland senator’s elevation to party leader means his role within the Coalition has been radically transformed from that of backbench rebel to party leader.

Canavan says what he thinks, and did just that in his first press conference. He struck a notably different and more nativist tone than his predecessor, conveying a message that no doubt raised a few eyebrows in suburban Australia.

Promising to fight for a country with “more Australian babies”, “more Australian barbecues” and “more Australian jokes”, Canavan argued: “Everything we need to make Australia the country it was in the past is here in our nation. We have the resources. We have the people. We have the land.”

The call for more babies harked back to former treasurer Peter Costello’s bonus payment to persuade families to produce an extra baby for the good of the country.

As the birth rate falls even faster in tough economic times, it felt a little jarring, even though he’s a father of five.

If the choice of language was a shock, so too was Canavan’s election. Before Wednesday’s leadership vote, Kevin Hogan, former leader David Littleproud’s deputy, was the favourite for the party’s top job.

After nearly 12 months of upheaval on the opposition benches – two Coalition splits, the defection of former leader Barnaby Joyce and Angus Taylor’s overthrow of Sussan Ley – surely it would have made sense for the Nationals to choose the business-as-usual candidate?

Except these aren’t normal times, and the National Party faces an unprecedented challenge from a surging One Nation, the party that lured Joyce – Canavan’s mentor and former boss.

A trained economist and former staffer at the Productivity Commission, Canavan is considered the best policy brain in the Nationals’ party room and argues his case convincingly.

The north Queensland senator has also relished playing political disruptor, crossing the floor, helping drive the Coalition decision to dump net zero, advocating for new coal-fired power stations and weighing in on hot-button issues such as late-term abortion that would chime with conservatives thinking about One Nation.

That’s the potential reward. Now for the risk.

His elevation to Nationals leader, and deputy opposition leader, could create headaches for a Liberal Party that desperately wants to win back seats it has lost in Australia’s major cities.

Canavan’s advocacy for Australia’s coal industry and questioning of climate change science, for example, is about as popular as a cold bucket of sick in teal seats. The new Nationals leader won’t care, but the Liberals very much do.

Tensions between the Liberals and Nationals could well be exacerbated, as Joyce pointed out with relish less than an hour after his old protege had won the job.

As Joyce said, he, Canavan and One Nation all agreed on income splitting (which allows couples on one income to reduce their tax), on abolishing the Department of Climate Change and on quitting the Paris Agreement – but it remains an open question at best whether the Liberal Party would support such moves.

How Canavan handles significant splits on policy questions will define his leadership. Littleproud and Ley showed what can happen.

A backbench rebel no more, Canavan could revive the Nationals’ political fortunes – or leave them a smoking ruin.

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