Birth rate hits record low as parents continue to put off having children

Australia’s fertility rate has collapsed to its lowest level on record, forcing the country to rely more heavily on immigration to expand the population as parents increasingly choose to have children when they are older.

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed that the fertility rate fell to 1.48 births per woman: the lowest rate since records began in 1921, despite the 292,318 registered births in 2024 being an increase of 1.9 per cent on 2023.

Since 2019, fertility rates – the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime – have fallen sharply in every state and territory. In the ACT the rate has dropped to a nation-low of just 1.27, putting it among the lowest fertility rates in the world, while the number of recorded births in NSW fell to its lowest level in 20 years.

The replacement rate, which is the average number of registered births per woman needed to maintain – or replace – a country’s population over time without migration, is 2.1 births per woman.

The birth rate figures for 2024 come amid debate about the country’s immigration levels. This masthead’s Resolve Political Monitor found this week that a majority of voters supported a significant reduction to Australia’s immigration intake. The country’s net overseas migration level in 2024 was 341,000 people, down 37 per cent from its peak of 538,000 in 2022-23.

Last week, Coalition immigration spokesman Paul Scarr said the nation’s intake must be set with consideration of the country’s housing supply shortage.

Social media content creator Domenica Calarco, 32, had thought she would be pregnant before she turned 30, but it was only seven weeks ago that she had her first child, Dove. Calarco has said she and former partner Jarod Bogunovich, 36, will be co-parents.

Calarco, who was a freelance make-up artist before appearing as a contestant on Married at First Sight in 2022, said that only after moving into a house on her parents’ property and earning a steadier income through social media was she able to think about having a baby.

“You always think, oh, I want to be settled [before having a baby], but I think as you approach your late 20s, you realise how hard it is to get ahead,” she says. “You’re often renting and not earning that much. And having a baby, especially in the private sector, and raising them is expensive.”

The median age of parents has continued a slow but steady climb over the past decade, and was 32.1 years for mothers and 33.9 years for fathers in 2024.

ABS head of demography Beidar Cho said the shift towards older parenthood reflected broader social changes and economic shifts, including more time spent in higher education, along with higher workforce participation by women.

“It also shows evolving patterns in how and when people choose to start families compared to previous generations,” she said.

Despite now feeling more settled, Calarco said she had no immediate plans to have more children.

“I’m one of three children, so when I was younger, I thought I’d have two or three myself at least,” she said. “But I think the reality of raising children in 2025 is that it’s so much more expensive. I’d probably need a bigger car, I would need more room in my house, and then I think about how I want to raise my daughter ... giving her the things that I didn’t have.”

Pelin Akyol, research manager for the e61 think tank, said Australia’s declining fertility rate was driven by three factors: later parenthood, parents having fewer children, and a rising share of people without children.

“The most significant of those is parents having fewer children, leading to smaller average family size,” she said, noting that economic factors contributed to people having fewer children.

“Concerns about the cost of raising children and job security have consistently ranked as the most important factors for both men and women in the decision to have a child.

“In recent years, three factors have increased in importance, particularly for young women: the cost of raising children; time and energy for one’s career; and availability and affordability of quality childcare.”

The number of registered births from 2023 to 2024 fell across most states and territories, with WA recording the biggest fall of 4.7 per cent.

Victoria recorded the largest increase at 12.9 per cent, but the bureau noted this was due to an improvement in birth registration processing times in 2024 following a period of delays.

The birth rate in NSW fell 3.4 per cent from 90,000 in 2023 to just under 87,000 in 2024: the lowest figure in 20 years, partly due to an increase in birth registration processing times.

The median age of mothers was highest in the ACT at 32.8 years, while the median age of fathers was highest in Victoria at 34.4 years.

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