Albanese’s caution is fuelling unease. This may be his COVID moment

Gambling reform. The royal commission into antisemitism. The stage 3 tax cuts. And now fuel rationing. For a guy with so many decades of experience in politics – and a track record of picking winners, managing outcomes and getting his way – Prime Minister Anthony Albanese can take an annoyingly long time to arrive at a decision that looks blindingly obvious to everybody else.

Albanese is playing down the urgency of the moment and insisting that, behind the scenes, all is calm and under control, that the work is being done, the states and feds are talking, and the newly appointed fuel tsar Anthea Harris is up and running.

With the US-Israeli war on Iran in its fourth week, farmers warning diesel shortages will lead to food shortages, energy market experts warning global oil and gas markets will remain undersupplied for months (even if the war ends in days), and state premiers begging the federal government to do more, Albanese’s approach is wearing thin with voters.

The prime minister has told colleagues in recent days that the lessons of the COVID pandemic have informed his approach to this crisis. He does not want to be seen to be rushing, lest it contribute to the sense of panic in some sections of the community, and he doesn’t want to pull every lever available to him immediately and be left without options to protect the economy and supply chains.

“You want to get decisions right,” a colleague quotes Albanese, “and today’s world is a TikTok world, where everyone has a 30-second attention span and wants things done instantly. That’s not necessarily the right thing to do. Getting the decision right the first time means you don’t have to go back and fix things later.”

The previous government, Albanese said, got plenty right during COVID, but it also got lots wrong. Australians needed reassuring that its leaders would not say one thing one day and another the next. “We are going to handle this in an orderly fashion,” he said. “This is complex. It involves things we can’t control, but what we can control is our response, which is orderly.”

It’s an approach that mirrors Albanese’s cautious personality. But the problem is not that the work to fix the problem isn’t under way or that decisions aren’t being made. Rather, the problem is one of perceptions.

Perceptions can make or break politicians. And Albanese is in danger of losing this war of perceptions.

Where his government’s handling of the fuel shortages has fallen short is in projecting a sense of action, of getting things done. That may not sound important but it does matter – because it boosts public confidence that the people elected to govern have the moment in hand.

There comes a time when the prime minister – rather than a senior minister or three – has to front up and explain to Australians what the government is doing and why it will fix the problems right now.

Albanese’s first instinct to play down the significance of the moment, when people are panic-buying fuel, hasn’t served him well. A case in point came last Saturday. Two days after he had convened national cabinet and appointed a fuel co-ordinator, he was asked about rationing. Albanese replied: “That’s a decision for state and territory government, so it’s not a question for me.”

That remark has not aged well. Only on Wednesday night, when he called a second national cabinet meeting for next Monday, did it become clear that Albanese was feeling the pressure – and that fuel rationing may well become a question for him when he sits down with state and territory leaders.

Another mistake has been in allowing Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen to take the lead (and effectively serve as a human punching bag for the opposition and sections of News Corp). It is Bowen who provides the daily updates on the number of petrol stations experiencing shortages, on the impact on the economy and even on food supply chains. That impact is expected to be felt sometime next month.

Coming in over the top of Bowen (or any senior minister) is not Albanese’s style. He wants to be a modern Hawke or Curtin, not a Whitlam or Keating, and that means letting go (at least a little) and letting his ministers run their portfolios in a proper cabinet government. But this has also created the space for the Coalition and One Nation to cause mischief and foment a sense of panic. One Nation, in particular, prospers in moments of panic and uncertainty.

On Thursday, Barnaby Joyce called for fuel rationing to begin as soon as possible – a trap, surely, for the prime minister. He’d be the leader who imposed fuel rationing on motorists while opposition MPs – playing politics every bit as much as Joyce – lined up to suggest it was the PM creating panic.

Albanese is correct that there are parallels between the early days of the COVID pandemic and the current fuel shortages, and some lessons to be learnt. Namely, don’t exhaust all policy options at once.

Here’s another lesson worth considering. Whatever you might think of them and the policies they implemented, national and state leaders including Scott Morrison, Dan Andrews and Gladys Berejiklian (and other state premiers) stood up and explained what was happening during the pandemic, each and every day, to ordinary Australians. It was an approach that reassured an anxious nation during a once-in-100-years crisis.

The current crisis does not demand daily briefings (at least not yet), but the impact on people’s lives is real, the implications for the economy serious and becoming more so. And, much like the early days of COVID, people are seeking reassurance.

Albanese is keenly aware of the weight and power of the office of prime minister, and he uses it sparingly. He is also concerned that this fuel crisis is contributing to fraying social cohesion in Australia, as the anxious few turn up at petrol stations with jerry cans and water tanks to stock up on diesel or petrol.

It’s time he took a leaf out of the Morrison-Andrews-Berejiklian playbook and explained – in detail, and indeed by using the weight of his office – how Australia will get through this fine mess. Monday’s meeting of national cabinet is the place to start.

James Massola is chief political commentator.