100 days in, how does PM measure up? Voters are harder judges second time around

Perhaps the most remarkable thing about the first 100 days of Anthony Albanese’s second term – that grand-sounding milestone which arrives on Monday – is how similar it feels to the same period in his first term.

In part, that is no accident. In July, Albanese told The Australian Financial Review that this would be a “year of delivery” on Labor’s pledges. He repeated the phrase not long afterwards to Labor caucus – then again last week in a press conference. This was similar to what he had told the same masthead at the conclusion of his first year in government: that Labor had demonstrated a determination “to deliver on its promises”.

Unsurprisingly, then, this is what dominated the first sitting of parliament this term. Policies it had pledged before the election were introduced: to protect penalty rates, make prescription medicines cheaper and cut student debt. And this legislative busy-ness, too, carried echoes of the government’s beginnings: near the end of its first year in power it had to set aside funds to employ more people to draft laws.

In part, though, the similarity is coincidence, the result of events over which Albanese has little control. It is largely forgotten now, but the earliest part of Albanese’s prime ministership was marked by a focus on foreign affairs. Mountains were moved in 2022 to allow Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong to travel to Japan in their first week: Albanese urgently procured a passport and both were part of a small group of ministers sworn in before the rest of the ministry. The early focus on matters of state helped cement the sense that this apparently unassuming man was now our prime minister.

And so it’s interesting that, in the early days of Albanese’s second term, foreign affairs has loomed even larger. Albanese has already attended the G7 and he has visited China, Fiji and New Zealand. There has been discussion of a review of AUKUS being conducted by the US; growing public anger at Israel’s actions in Gaza; and speculation about when Albanese might meet US President Donald Trump.

But a second term differs in significant ways from a first – and that list gives you some sense of this. In the first term, your actions appear in relation to your predecessor: fixing their mistakes, contrasting your tone with theirs. As events arise, you are given leeway: most voters don’t expect you to be brilliant at the job immediately.

In the second term, you may still be dealing with dilemmas created by your predecessor – such as AUKUS. But now those dilemmas become yours alone. This means the questions voters ask become more complicated. They are less about whether you are heading in the right direction, doing your best, and more about whether problems are being fixed.

So far, this term, Albanese has succeeded in repeating one of the main achievements of his first: to project a certain tone, one of calm, accompanied by a sense of methodically going about the business of governing. The word “unruffled” comes to mind, and this quality is more marked this time around, as you would expect with more experience and a significant election victory.

But methodically governing is easier in a first term, in part because legislation is the major test. Laws can more or less immediately adjust some things: taxes, workplace rights, prices. But there are other problems where you just have to try things, then wait to see if they work; and you are judged both on your success and on how you respond to failure.

So on climate change, say, the question is no longer whether Labor is better than the Coalition. It is: are emissions being cut fast enough? There are different views on Labor’s performance, but Professor Ross Garnaut warned two weeks ago that Australia was on track to miss its renewable targets “by a big margin”. Already, since the election, Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen has made two changes to accelerate the rollout of renewables. You can take that as a sign of trouble – and, depending on how generous you’re feeling, as an indication the government is alert and fixing things.

Similarly, a month ago we learnt that Treasury had advised the government its aim of building 1.2 million homes in five years would “not be met”. To this, Treasurer Jim Chalmers pointed out Labor had been saying much the same thing: that “we will need more effort to reach that substantial, ambitious housing target”. Again, the government’s actions had been inadequate; and, rather than denying them, it was responding.

As a government gets older, this is where more of the focus goes. Voters will accept some bumps. At some point, they stop believing your reassurances. Partly this is because, with time, patterns appear in a government’s shortcomings. Perhaps a government is prone to underestimating problems, or overestimating the brilliance of its solutions, or focusing on the wrong things, or not listening, or moving too slowly or too fast.

Another obvious parallel lies in the coming economic summit, to be held at almost the same point in this term as the Jobs and Skills Summit was in the first. A question not yet quite resolved about that first summit is: were the industrial relations changes that came out of it significant or not? A different uncertainty surrounds the second: the government seemed to raise expectations high before trying to lower them again.

Together, these are a reminder that the question that hovered over the first term of the Albanese government is still with us today. Given the scale of the problems facing the country – in education, health, housing, inequality – is it doing enough quickly enough? Are its proposed solutions brave enough, imaginative enough, comprehensive enough?

In its first term, asking such questions could be dismissed as calls to be bold for boldness’ sake. As time ticks by, voters will pose the same questions but in a far more concentrated, tangible and down-to-earth way: by looking at their lives and asking whether they are satisfied.

Sean Kelly is author of The Game: A Portrait of Scott Morrison, a regular columnist and a former adviser to Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd.