ANU report puts a number on climate impact of Woodside’s $19b Scarborough gas project

New research from the Australian National University challenges the claim emissions from Woodside’s $18.9 billion Scarborough gas project off WA’s coast will be “negligible”, while also directly quantifying a project’s climate impact for the first time.

The study, published in the npj Climate Action journal on Monday, also directly attributed nearly 0.0004 degrees of additional global warming to the project’s at least 31 years of emissions from 2026.

While the number may appear small, report lead author Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick said the consequences would be great.

The study pointed to an additional 516,000 people around the world exposed to unprecedented heat and hundreds of heat-related deaths in Europe by the end of the century.

It also claimed exposure to heat at the Great Barrier Reef would result in an additional 16 million coral colonies lost in each future bleaching event – which themselves would become more common.

Perkins-Kirkpatrick said this was the first time research had quantified the impacts of individual projects on global warming.

She said while Scarborough had been used as an example, it was possible to apply the formula to other operations and companies.

“The majority of Australia’s new fossil fuel projects describe their anticipated greenhouse gas outputs as negligible in the context of global emissions and claim they’re unable to measure contributions to global warming, while also ignoring expected impacts,” Perkins-Kirkpatrick said.

“The site’s developers claim it is not possible to link greenhouse gas emissions from Scarborough with climate change or any particular climate-related impact given that the estimated emissions associated with Scarborough are negligible in the context of existing and future predicted global greenhouse gas concentrations.

“But our research shows emissions output from this new project is far from negligible.”

Perkins-Kirkpatrick said the report had quantified the impact on places like Europe and the Great Barrier Reef as there was already research on climate change at those sites.

But she said that it was clear both people and coral reefs closer to the Scarborough project would also be affected.

“If we can show impacts for the Great Barrier Reef then we know that Scott Reef or Ningaloo will also be impacted,” Perkins-Kirkpatrick said.

However, a Woodside spokesperson remained adamant climate change “cannot be attributed to any one event, country, industry or activity”, and pointed to reports from the CSIRO and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that supported the company’s position.

“Woodside is committed to playing a role in the energy transition,” they said.

“The Scarborough reservoir contains less than 0.1 per cent carbon dioxide.

“Combined with processing design efficiencies at the offshore floating production unit and onshore Pluto Train 2, the project is expected to be one of the lowest carbon intensity sources of LNG delivered into north Asian markets.”

They said Woodside would reduce the Scarborough Energy Project’s direct greenhouse gas emissions to “as low as reasonably practicable” by incorporating “energy efficiency measures” in design and operations.

The ANU research calculated that, by 2049, the anticipated Australian emissions from the Scarborough project alone would comprise almost half of Australia’s annual carbon emissions budget.

Report co-author Dr Nicola Maher said beyond 2050, all emissions from Scarborough would require durable carbon removal from the atmosphere if Australia was to meet its emission reduction targets.

“That would require a huge increase in the effectiveness and scale of carbon capture and storage technology,” Maher said.

Perkins-Kirkpatrick claimed the capabilities of carbon capture and storage would not meet the scale Woodside would need in the next 25 years.

A project with a history

Woodside told the federal environment regulator in a 2022 submission that capturing and storing the reservoir carbon dioxide for its Browse gas export project was a “high-risk, high-cost” option that “remains technically challenging; however, with time, carbon capture and storage technology will improve”.

WA upper house Greens MP and former Conservation Council of WA director Jess Beckerling also previously claimed carbon storage was “fantasy technology” that did not work, citing Chevron’s $3 billion attempt at WA’s Barrow Island, which, after eight years, works at one-third of its planned capacity.

Also in 2022, the Australian Conservation Foundation launched a federal court action to stop the Scarborough gas project on the basis that its contribution to global warming would harm the Great Barrier Reef – the same concerns discussed in the latest study.

That action ultimately failed in August 2024, while Doctors for the Environment Australia also challenged the project in the Federal Court earlier this year, arguing Woodside’s environmental plan was “meaningless corporate puffery”.

A lawyer for the group claimed Woodside’s court submission misinterpreted the federal regulator’s reasons for approval, in suggesting the regulator considered Scarborough’s projected emissions negligible to its assessment.

However, that court challenge was also shut down in August

Doctors for the Environment Australia executive director Dr Kate Wylie said it was “clear that Australia’s offshore gas regulations are not living up to the broader public interest”.

“The offshore gas industry in Australia is one of the most significant sources of greenhouse gas emissions, so the Australian community should be able to expect the government to regulate those impacts seriously,” she said.

Perkins-Kirkpatrick said she was hopeful the latest research could help with future court cases against mining projects.

The study is contributing to a research project about lethal humidity, which is funded by Andrew and Nicola Forrest’s Minderoo Foundation.

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