Melbourne forecast to crack 45 degrees in worst heatwave since Black Saturday

A dangerous heatwave is sweeping over Victoria on Tuesday, threatening to break record temperatures and uncontrollable fire conditions, as Melbourne is tipped to crack 45 degrees.

Parts of the state’s north-west are forecast to reach a record 49 degrees and the worst heatwave conditions since Black Saturday in 2009.

They include large swaths of the Mallee region – including the regional city of Mildura, and the town of Ouyen– where the previous record was 47 degrees.

As of 1pm, Ouyen had already reached 45.4 degrees. Mildura was sitting at 45.3 degrees, and Walpeup was also at 45.4.

Ambulance Victoria set up an emergency operations centre on the weekend, as it prepares to redeploy paramedics to the state’s hardest-hit areas.

The emergency service is urging Victorians to save calling Triple Zero for only the “most serious of emergencies”, and use alternative services, including the state’s virtual emergency department and Nurse on Call.

Powercor, the electricity distributor for Melbourne’s CBD and Victoria’s west, said it would have bolstered crews, including dispatchers and controllers, ready for widespread power outages in the coming days, as grids are expected to be overloaded with people using air conditioners.

Melbourne is forecast to swelter through a maximum of 45 degrees, only marginally lower than the 46.4 degrees recorded on Black Saturday, before temperatures plummet overnight. The CBD reached 37.3 degrees by 1pm.

Police and State Emergency Service volunteers doorknocked more than 1000 homes in the Otways, where the Carlisle River fire has been burning out of control and risks becoming more dangerous. Residents in communities south of Colac and north of the Great Ocean Road were warned to evacuate before sunset on Monday or risk their lives.

Evacuation warnings extended from Gellibrand in the west, to areas neighbouring Lorne in the east. People in popular holiday towns between Aireys Inlet and Yuulong – including Lorne and Apollo Bay – were warned to monitor rapidly changing conditions and prepare to leave.

Authorities expect the direction of the fire will change when a south-westerly wind change hits the area about 5pm Tuesday. They warn that emergency services may not be able to help anyone who chooses to stay in the area.

Six major fires continued to burn across the state on Tuesday, three of those burning out of control. So far, 430,000 hectares have been lost.

All Great Otway National Park visitor sites and state forests were closed until further notice. Parks Victoria said 53 parks and state forests were closed statewide due to ongoing fires.

A total fire ban has been declared for the whole of Victoria for Tuesday. The Country Fire Authority is warning of “extreme” fire danger in the state’s west, south-west and central districts, and “high” fire danger across the rest of Victoria.

The emergency service has not forecast “catastrophic” fire conditions for anywhere in Victoria, which were declared on January 9 before serious fires across the state destroyed livestock, hundreds of properties, and killed a man.

“While all fires across the state are being treated extremely seriously, we are particularly concerned about the Carlisle River fire in the Otways,” CFA Chief Officer Jason Heffernan said.

“We’re urging everyone to restrict any unnecessary travel [on Tuesday]. Farming activity should also be paused.”

The temperature in Geelong reached 32.4 degrees at 1pm and is forecast to hit a maximum of 45 degrees on Tuesday, while the Wimmera region is predicted to reach up to 48 degrees.

Northerly winds driving hot air down into Victoria will be followed by a south-westerly change bringing cooler conditions, but it won’t reach Melbourne until very late on Tuesday evening, the Bureau of Meteorology’s Simon Timcke said.

“For the south of the state, it’s just one very hot day ahead of us, and we certainly will see milder conditions on Wednesday in the south,” the senior meteorologist told The Age.

The change will offer limited relief in the north, but send temperatures nosediving in Melbourne, with a maximum of 24 degrees predicted for Wednesday.

It could also bring more bushfire smoke across Melbourne in the early hours of Wednesday morning, Timcke said.

A previously forecast week-long heatwave in parts of the state’s north has blown out to eight days, with temperatures in the high-30s or low-40s predicted through to Saturday.

To make matters worse on fire grounds, Tuesday’s wind change is forecast to be dry, potentially blowing up dust in the state’s west. Very little rainfall is expected across the state until next weekend, Timcke said.

“We’re not expecting any rainfall with the change in the Melbourne area,” he said.

“The north-east might pick up a little bit, but short term, very, very little … and that won’t be until next weekend, either.

“If we do see any rainfall anywhere, it will be very light and insignificant as far as helping firefighting efforts.”

There was the slight chance of dry thunderstorms over the state’s west on Tuesday.

The “sharp, gusty” south-westerly change would reach the south-west coast in the afternoon, the emergency service said.

Twelve aircraft and 300 firefighters are fighting the Otways blaze, which grew to more than 9000 hectares by Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, that number grew to 10,400 hectares.

“That has grown significantly in the last 48 hours,” state response controller Alistair Drayton said on Monday.

“That’s what we are anticipating [on Tuesday], again ... it’s in a very difficult landscape for firefighters.

“This will not be contained in coming days, should it break out.”

Maximum temperatures in Gippsland were forecast in the mid- to high 30s on Tuesday.

Buses are replacing trains on some V/Line services as heat expands the tracks, while Metro services’ speed is reduced, also due to track temperature.

“On days where the ambient temperature is forecast to reach 42 degrees and above in Melbourne, the maximum speed limit is reduced to 70km/h across the entire Metro network,” Metro said.

The Australian Open opened its gates earlier on Tuesday due to the heat, at 9am rather than 10am. Organisers also delayed the open’s wheelchair competition for 24 hours, and play on outdoor courts could be suspended when conditions are at their worst.

Victoria recorded its highest temperature on Sunday at Kyabram, which reached 45 degrees.

The remote outback town of Oodnadatta in South Australia reached 48.5 degrees on Sunday, while Hay in NSW’s south-west crept past 47 degrees.

More than 1000 properties in Victoria have been damaged by bushfires this summer, 289 of them homes.

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