Staged build of high-speed train line from Newcastle to Sydney revealed

A high-speed rail line between Newcastle and Sydney would be delivered in three stages under ambitious plans detailed in a business case for the mega-project, which envisages the first services starting by 2037.

Under the preferred option, operations between Newcastle and the Central Coast would start within the next 12 years, followed by those to the Sydney CBD by 2039, and Parramatta and Western Sydney Airport by 2042.

The plans by a federal rail authority, which proposes that construction begin in 2027, include stations at Broadmeadow in Newcastle, Lake Macquarie, the Central Coast, the Sydney CBD, Parramatta and Western Sydney Airport.

Of the 191 kilometres planned, 115 kilometres would be in tunnels, 41 kilometres on surface tracks and 38 kilometres over bridges and viaducts.

NSW Premier Chris Minns said he would not hand over a blank cheque for the project but would be willing to fast-track planning for it, and ensure access to the existing railway and easements.

“The truth of the matter is, the federal government’s got way, way deeper pockets than NSW. If it’s an initiative that they want to pursue, it’s great for NSW – I’m not going to stand in the way,” he said. “NSW needs some love from the federal government.”

After evaluating the business case for a dedicated high-speed link, Infrastructure Australia is supporting the Newcastle-Sydney section of the broader project for a line along the east coast to progress to a development phase focused on improving certainty about costs and benefits.

It has also recommended that, in parallel, further work be carried out on the entire project, building on the analysis in the business case.

The evaluation has excluded the estimated cost of building the line due to concerns that would jeopardise a bidding process.

Cost estimates in confidential modelling by the NSW government three years ago estimated a new line from Sydney to the Central Coast would cost up to $32 billion.

The High Speed Rail Authority, which completed the business case late last year, is seeking federal government funding for a two-year development phase for the first two legs: Newcastle to Central Coast and then onto Central.

That development phase would refine the design and a cost estimate for the project, as well as secure planning approvals and preserve a corridor for the line.

Infrastructure Australia said a higher level of cost certainty was needed to inform decisions about investing in the project. “Given the large amount of tunnelling and the new rail systems, we expect costs to vary considerably as design maturity improves,” it said.

The nation’s peak adviser on infrastructure said it was not possible yet to make a confident assessment of the project’s cost-benefit ratio until there was more certainty about its cost.

Analysis by the rail authority shows it is only under low-cost or high-benefit scenarios, which include land use uplift and wider economic boosts, that the benefits of the proposed Newcastle-Sydney line would outweigh the bill.

The main benefits spruiked by the rail authority are in housing supply, followed by reduced journey times between key locations. It estimates the project would spur an extra 46,000 households due to improved transport links.

However, Infrastructure Australia said it had “low confidence at this time” that the forecast housing benefits would be realised.

About 60 per cent of the line would be in tunnels, mostly between the Central Coast, the Sydney CBD and Western Sydney Airport. Tunnels would result in slower train speeds – up to 200 km/h – than on the rest of the line. Trains running through the tunnels would be about 40 per cent slower.

The rail authority advised that higher speeds would require tunnels to have a significantly larger diameter, but that it would have a minimal impact on end-to-end journey times between Sydney and Newcastle and would not justify extra costs.

Shorter tunnels between the Central Coast and Newcastle would be designed for maximum speeds of 320 km/h.

A high-speed line is estimated to cut travel times between Newcastle and central Sydney to about an hour, from two hours and 25 minutes. The route from Newcastle to Western Sydney Airport would decrease to about 90 minutes from three hours and 26 minutes.

Infrastructure Australia noted that a Newcastle-Sydney line would entice only about 5 per cent of people to switch from travelling by car to high-speed trains.

“These outcomes, together with the risk of realising housing uplift, challenge the objectives of the national [high-speed rail] project, requiring further substantiation that the Newcastle-to-Sydney section should be delivered first,” it said in the evaluation.

Urban planner Joe Langley, who was a specialist adviser on Sydney’s metro projects and involved in a 2013 high-speed rail study, said a mechanism for the government to capture uplifts in land values due to new transport infrastructure was needed to make the proposed project a reality.

“If we don’t do something to capture the uplift in land values in a consistent way with high-speed rail, it will become the biggest transfer of public wealth to private interests in Australia’s history,” said Langley, who set up an advocacy group for high-speed rail.

“We really need to pin that down or this project is not possible.”

Federal Coalition transport spokesperson Bridget McKenzie said Prime Minister Anthony Albanese promised high-speed rail at the 2022 election, but works would not commence on the project until after the next poll, if then, given the snail pace of delivery.

“The government still cannot answer where the funding will come from to deliver this challenging project,” she said.

A spokesperson for federal Transport Minister Catherine King said the government was committed to progressing high-speed rail, which had proven its ability to bring people and places closer together overseas.

Infrastructure Australia’s evaluation did cite significant risks delivering the project due to the scale and complexity of the preferred option.

About $79 million of $500 million committed by the Albanese government to plan for and protect a corridor for a Sydney-Newcastle line was spent on the business case.

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