On December 12, Victorias 54-strong aerial firefighting fleet was unveiled at Avalon Airport. It included several water-bombing helicopters, a clutch of smaller cropduster-style planes, and two large air tankers – owned by Canadian company Conair and operated by Australian partner Field Air.Within days they were needed.On December 17, lightning sparked a fire in the rugged Grampians, which was tinder-dry after 18 months of little rain.Over the next four weeks, an airborne assault dropped 5723 payloads of water and retardant as ground crews often struggled to reach flames in inaccessible terrain. Those payloads helped save Halls Gap from an inferno with a 422-kilometre perimeter.Helicopters hoovered water up from dams, other aircraft guided commercial-size firebombing jets or scouted for flare-ups. One helicopter used an infra-red camera to scan through thick smoke to help authorities issue alerts.To show how fire-bombers helped stop the first Grampians bushfire this summer, this masthead combined flight and fire data with accounts from those on the ground.The FlightAware data does not capture the full scale of the aerial effort as many aircraft operated at low altitude in mountainous terrain, obstructing some public flight-tracking. Still the maps show a hive of aerial activity.Forest Fire Management Victorias deputy incident controller Glenn Rudolph said better weather and an immense ground effort to build control lines ultimately contained the blaze, but an intense aerial attack was crucial in buying time.Its why Craig Lapsley, Victoria’s first emergency management commissioner, fears any loss of the state’s biggest firebombing aircraft – currently procured through contracts with international aviation companies – could seriously hinder firefighting efforts when they are needed most.Lapsley points to the Los Angeles winter fires as evidence of climate change driving year-round threats, potentially tying up fire-bombers overseas that Australia would otherwise use.“Victoria, I think, may struggle in years to come with the availability of large aircraft,” Lapsley says. “They’re living on an old model that may have serviced Victoria very well … but I think they’re missing an opportunity.”https://thearticlestack.com/interactive/modules/imagebar-gallery/index.html?resizable=true&v=796&configUrl=https://thearticlestack.com/interactive/hub/configs/imagebar-gallery/42445.json&v=0.9511105196531009; size: mediumBy this point more than 76,000 hectares of national park and farmland had burned. Four homes in Moyston and Mafeking were lost along with 40 outbuildings. Thousands of animals had died.And yet, it could have been worse.Amid the LA fires in January, this masthead reported Australia risked being isolated from international large waterbombing aircraft as climate change lengthened fire seasons, keeping planes busy in the northern hemisphere. Underscoring the risk were deadly and record-breaking fires in South Korea last month.NSW felt the affects of prolonged fire danger in the mid-2010s when early season starts – such as in 2018 – meant the Rural Fire Service was unable to immediately get all the planes needed from overseas. That prompted the RFS to pursue its own standing fleet to guarantee some sovereign capability, starting with the acquisition of a 737 air tanker in 2019. Ever since then, the availability [of large fire-bombers] has become even more pressured, RFS commissioner Rob Rogers said.https://thearticlestack.com/interactive/modules/image-quote/index.html?resizable=true&v=40&configUrl=https://thearticlestack.com/interactive/hub/configs/image-quote/42758.json&v=0.6377010430969489; size: regularNSWs top firefighter said the LA fires meant American demand would remain strong. South American countries like Argentina and Chile, whose southern hemisphere summer fire seasons nearly mirror Australias, were increasingly seeking planes too, he added. Youve also got some of the European countries, particularly Greece, that used to rely heavily on the Russian machines. And obviously, since the Ukraine situation, thats become problematic, Rogers said.The Black Summer fires spurred a further expansion of the NSW fleet, including the purchase of a large Chinook helicopter in 2023. Although the upfront cost may be hefty, Rogers said the cost increases were just nowhere near as volatile when you own the asset.Some of the states fire-bombers are still contracted from aviation companies via the National Aerial Firefighting Centre. But the NSW fleet employs and trains locals under a $400 million,10-year operations deal with Canadas Coulson Aviation.Victoria does not have a standalone fleet like this, which ex-Emergency Management Victoria chief Craig Lapsley thinks is a problem.“I’m not one to say Victoria has got it dramatically wrong,” he said. “I just think Victoria’s got a risk of not having what they want, when they need it, under the current arrangements.”Lapsley argued an investment would be worthwhile even if there were no fires to fight over winter, as crews could tackle other natural disasters and train. He pointed out that a NSW large air tanker recouped some money as it was briefly sent to tackle fires overseas, albeit a small amount. Furthermore, he said, the weak Australian dollar made it increasingly expensive to pay international aviation companies in US dollars.Alternatively, the contract-model could be enhanced, Lapsley suggested, by paying providers to operate for more days each fire season, encouraging them to stay year-round in Victoria consistently. “We shouldn’t have to rely on bringing people from overseas if you build the industry in Australia,” he said.Field Air general manager Stephen Holding said Victoria already has some sovereign capacity as one Q400AT, ultimately owned by Canadian company Conair, is based at Avalon year-round, operating in Queensland before Victoria and then staying in Australia over winter for maintenance.“It’s just been offered a contract structure that provides enough days commercially for an operator to leave it here. It doesn’t have to go and do another season somewhere else in the world. And that’s another way you can achieve sovereignty without the taxpayer having to fund it,” he said.Josephine Stirling, director of the National Aerial Firefighting Centre, which co-ordinates aircraft procurement for states and territories, said seven aircraft moved between North America and Australia this bushfire season as part of their contracts. She indicated that increasing competition for them was an issue.With changing fire seasons globally and demand for the larger resources growing, this arrangement will be challenged in future years, she said. NAFC will continue to work with the federal government to explore opportunities to guarantee the availability of these aviation assets, which could include more sovereign capability.Asked if direct investment in aircraft as in NSW was being considered, Forest Fire Management Victorias chief fire officer, Chris Hardman, backed the current contract-model with domestic and international operators.This approach, delivered through Victoria’s Emergency Management agencies, ensures we have an effective, flexible and innovative aviation firefighting capability to help fight fires and keep Victoria’s community, assets and environment safe, he said.“Aircraft are just one tool to keep the community safe. In any given season, our aircraft fleet supports thousands of firefighters, hundreds of firefighting trucks, heavy machinery and plant equipment on the ground.Acting emergency management commissioner Tim Wiebusch said Victoria was well resourced to fight fires with aircraft.“The majority of aircraft in the Victorian fleet are locally based and the state has contractual and contingency arrangements in place to ensure appropriate aircraft are available across the higher risk weather season, he said. “Victoria also has access to more than 100 call-when-needed aircraft that are available year-round to respond to emergencies.”Ex-NSW fire chief Greg Mullins has long called for Australia to develop more sovereign aerial firefighting capacity. But he stresses that firebombing from the sky cannot stop bushfires altogether, and firefighting boots on the ground would always be needed.“It’s overrated in the public’s eye,” he said. “It’s of great assistance in certain circumstances, but it’s not a silver bullet, and never will be.”Mullins pointed out that severe weather might stop planes from being able to fly safely, as happened in the Grampians on Boxing Day, or break up retardant drops. Indeed, in the Grampians this summer, only 50 drops – albeit those with the biggest payloads – were from large air tankers.“It takes some intensity out of the fire, and slows it down and gives the ground forces a chance. [But] worldwide, firefighters know aerial attack does not extinguish fires,” he said. “People on the ground do.”Forest firefighter Kellie Sommerville was one of those on the ground in the Grampians. Six days before Christmas, she worked all night on a containment line before she was finally relieved at 5am. She couldnt sleep so went to a lookout near Halls Gap to watch the fire.“That’s probably what I reflect on now as one of the toughest days of the fires. We love this place. It’s part of who we are. It’s pretty tough, sitting up there watching all that.”