Melbourne to bask in warmer-than-average spring days and nights

Melbourne will bask in warmer-than-average temperatures this spring, as authorities warn of a higher-risk bushfire season across much of the state.

But it will feel like winter for a few more weeks, with showers predicted for most of the week in Melbourne and a cold front set to move across the state on Tuesday.

Despite the showery conditions predicted for the first week of spring, the Bureau of Meteorology and Australia’s fire chiefs have predicted a higher-than-average risk of bushfires this year, particularly in Victoria’s south, south-west, central, and south-west Gippsland regions.

Bureau meteorologist Caitlin Minney said average day and night temperatures for winter had been above average, with average or below-average rainfall recorded in Victoria.

Recent rainfall has come off the back of long-term rainfall deficits in Victoria, Tasmania, southern South Australia and parts of Western Australia, with drier soils creating an increased risk of bushfires.

Australia’s overall water storage levels are sitting at 67 per cent, Minney said. Highlighting the rainfall deficits recorded in Victoria over winter, water storage facilities in the southeast of the state were sitting at 37 per cent – a drop of 13 per centage points over the past year.

“Long-term rainfall deficiencies persist in parts of south-eastern Australia,” Minney said.

“Soil moisture is currently average to above average across most of Australia, but for parts of the south-east, especially Tasmania, soil moisture remains below average.”

Weatherzone meteorologist Corine Brown reported a frigid polar blast from Antarctica had pushed over south-eastern Australia over the weekend, bringing snow to Tasmania and the southern parts of the mainland and into alpine areas in NSW.

“Snow fell down to about 900 metres on the mainland, with reports of snow gracing the Mount Lofty Ranges in South Australia overnight, as well as snowfall on Mount Macedon, about an hour north of Melbourne, and Mount William in Victoria’s Grampians National Park.”

Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate scientist at Australian National University, said people complaining of the cold weather this year, including herself, have forgotten what a normal winter feels like.

“Our short-term memories have led us to believe that it was cold,” Perkins-Kirkpatrick said. “It was cold compared with winters in the past decade … but it was closer to the long-term average – the climate of 50 or so years ago.”

NSW has experienced higher than average rainfall over winter, fuelled by warm ocean temperatures.

Professor Matthew England, a climate scientist at the University of NSW, said the Tasman Sea had been unusually warm throughout August – about 2 degrees above average in many areas.

“On top of this, we’ve had onshore easterly winds most days, which is highly unusual for winter, when we normally see prevailing westerlies,” England said.

“These easterly winds pick up moisture from the ocean, which favours increased coastal rains along NSW. So it’s this combination of record ocean temperatures and prevailing onshore easterlies that has likely led to the record-breaking rains.”

Australia’s fire chiefs released the seasonal bushfire risk assessment for the coming spring on Wednesday, predicting increased risk of bushfires in Victoria and Western Australia.

AFAC, the national council for fire commissioners and fire chiefs in Australia, said surface moisture in the southeast of the country often hid deeper dry soils from long-term rainfall deficiencies over the last 12 to 18 months.

“Some places have reported their lowest ever rainfall during this period,” the organisation said in a statement.

“If spring rainfall doesn’t eventuate, the conditions will rapidly switch to an increased risk of fire.”

Authorities predict increased bushfire risks over spring for the Dampier Peninsula, Derby Coast and the Central Kimberley, Little Sandy Desert, and south-eastern Pilbara in WA.

In South Australia, there is an increased bushfire risk in the south-eastern agricultural areas of the Murraylands in South Australia.

Global trends

While 2024 was the hottest year on record globally, 2025 has been less extreme so far.

Still, the northern summer was marked by events such as wildfires in Canada and 40-degree weather in Europe.

Last week, Scotland imposed water restrictions for the first time because of low river levels after a prolonged dry spell, The Telegraph reported.

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