Historic moment as coal power falls simultaneously in China and India

Coal power generation fell in both India and China last year as a result of a massive surge in renewable energy deployment, marking what one leading analyst described as a historic moment in the global transition to clean energy.

It is the first time since 1973 that coal use fell in both nations at once, and it occurred as energy demand in both countries increased, according to Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. This suggests that renewables are displacing coal, the world’s dirtiest energy source, in the first and third most polluting nations on Earth.

Together, the power sectors of China and India drove 93 per cent of the rise in global carbon dioxide emissions from 2015-2024, Myllyvirta writes in Carbon Brief, a UK-based website specialising in climate and energy.

His analysis shows power generation from coal fell by 1.6 per cent in China and by 3 per cent in India in 2025, even as China continued building new coal power plants. Many of the plants are used for peaking during periods of high demand, so while the China’s sector’s coal power capacity has been expanding, its coal use has been falling.

Both countries now have peak coal use in sight, if China can maintain its renewables deployment and India can meet its renewable energy targets.

The International Energy Agency reported late last year that it believed coal use had hit a ceiling and would begin a slow decline. Nations such as France, Great Britain and Spain have either already or will soon totally eliminate coal use. China uses as much as the rest of the world combined, but is ramping up renewables far faster than predicted as it seeks to dominate future industries and achieve energy independence.

Myllyvirta was among the first international analysts to observe that China had achieved a peak in its greenhouse gas emissions, years ahead of earlier predictions, largely due to its deployment of solar, wind and batteries.

China’s vast renewable manufacturing sector is exporting that technology to nations such as India, forcing down cost and helping other nations in their transition from coal.

According to Myllyvirta, India increased its renewable energy capacity by 44 per cent year-on-year during the first 11 months of last year. This huge leap would need to accelerate even further for coal power to go into structural decline in India and allow the government to meet green energy targets.

South Korea announced at climate talks in Brazil in November that it would retire most of its coal-fired power plants by 2040, and at least halve its carbon emissions by 2035. Forty of its coal plants have confirmed closure dates.

The declines come as coal use surges in the United States, with the sector benefiting from the Trump administration’s efforts to boost the industry and curtail renewables in that country.

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