Bowen has committed Australia to reducing emissions by 62 to 70 per cent by 2035. What does this even mean?

Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen announced on Thursday that Australia’s emissions reduction target for 2035 is 62 per cent to 70 per cent lower than in 2005. What does it all mean?

What is the 2035 target being announced?

Australia is a signatory to the Paris Agreement, the 2015 United Nations treaty on climate change. All members of the Paris Agreement are required to submit their targets for how much they can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 before the next UN climate conference, COP30 in Brazil this November.

The goal of the Paris Agreement is to have global emissions peak and then rapidly fall, so that by mid-century, the world achieves a balance between human-generated emissions and greenhouse removals by sinks. This equilibrium is also called “net zero”.

Signatories have agreed to pursue policies to keep the global average temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, and as close as possible to 1.5 degrees.

I’ve heard it called an NDC. What is that?

That stands for “nationally determined contribution”. This is the commitment that each country makes to reduce emissions under the United Nations Paris Agreement.

The earlier Kyoto Protocol was a top-down approach, with emission reductions imposed on participating countries. It failed because it exempted developing countries, which let emerging emitters China and India off the hook, and the United States withdrew due to economic concerns.

The Paris Agreement was intended to bring everyone into the tent, so it let countries determine their own reductions. The framework acknowledges it will take longer for developing countries to reach peak emissions and cuts will be balanced with sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty.

Countries have to submit new or updated NDCs every five years, and each successive NDC is meant to ratchet up the ambition. Countries can also set more ambitious targets at any time.

Why is it a range, and why so large?

The Climate Change Authority recommended a target range between 62 and 70 per cent. Rather than select a number, or a narrower range, the Albanese government has adopted it as policy.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said several other countries were also committing to ranges, noting Brazil also had an 8 percentage point range, Singapore 12 percentage points, and the European Union was discussing 63 to 70 per cent.

“It’s consistent, given the impact that new technological development can have, that you would have a range – we hope to achieve as low emissions as possible, while making sure that we continue to grow the economy, grow jobs, seize the opportunities which are there,” Albanese said. “I can’t speak for business, but we think a range in this order is investible as well as achievable.”

The Climate Change Authority had a draft range of 65 to 75 per cent. Treasury modelled 65 per cent.

When asked why Treasury modelled only the lowest number, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said modelling was resource-intensive, and it was impossible to model all scenarios.

“The most important thing is the difference between the orderly transition that we will deliver ... and the disorderly transition being urged by our political opponents,” he said.

Are other countries using 2005 levels?

Not all countries. It is a common baseline, used by Australia, New Zealand, Canada, China, India and Brazil, among others. The United States under the Biden administration also used 2005, though Donald Trump has now withdrawn the US from the pact.

Many developed economies are using an earlier baseline – the UK, Norway and Switzerland, for example, are reducing emissions relative to 1990 levels. This is what was used in the Kyoto Protocol.

Some countries are using later baselines – Japan’s targets are relative to 2013 levels, and the United Arab Emirates’ to 2019 levels.

The Climate Action Tracker website – a joint project of Climate Analytics and the NewClimate Institute – crunches the numbers so you can compare countries’ commitments on a like-for-like basis.

Why does Australia’s target matter when we are so small?

As the National Climate Risk Assessment released on Monday shows, Australia has a lot to lose from runaway climate change. Our best chance is if the world acts to rapidly reduce emissions. Even with the US out of the Paris Agreement, the momentum in the rest of the world is crucial.

The first way to influence that is through diplomatic pressure, which will be effective only if we have a credible, ambitious goal. The fact that Australia is a major polluter on a per capita basis does not escape notice internationally.

The second is by deliberately curbing our fossil fuel exports, which governments are reluctant to do – see the recent approval of the massive Woodside gas project in Western Australia. It’s described as a “climate bomb” for its impact on global emissions, but the gas will be exported, so it won’t count on Australia’s emissions ledger.

Is the Paris Agreement working?

Last year was the hottest year on record, at 1.55 degrees above pre-industrial levels, but this was a single year. Scientists look at the long-term average, and on that basis, the planet has warmed 1.3 to 1.4 degrees. Australia has warmed 1.5 degrees.

Climate Action Tracker analysis shows that the collective commitments made so far under the Paris Agreement are not close to limiting warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees. Australia’s new target is not in line with that either.

The world is on track for 3 degrees of warming by the end of this century.

As catastrophic as that would be, the Paris Agreement has almost certainly spared us from a worse fate. When the treaty was signed in 2015, the world was on track for 4 degrees of warming. Changing the trajectory to 3 degrees is a win.

Any more good news?

One of the most significant things that happened last year is that China’s emissions peaked and are now falling. China is yet to submit its 2035 target.

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