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Markets Live: ASX selloff resumes

Jens Meyer and Patrick Commins
Updated ,first published

Summary

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That's it for Markets Live today.

Thanks for reading and your comments.

See you all again tomorrow morning from 9.

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The ASX has fallen sharply, led by the big banks and miners, as investors followed a poor lead from Chinese equities amid an increasingly febrile pre-Fed environment.

Not even a new PM could save the day, as the ASX 200 index closed near its lows for the day, racking up a 78 point, or 1.5 per cent, loss to 5018. The All Ords fell 74 points to 5047.

The big banks suffered, with ANZ, NAB and Westpac all around 2.4 per cent down, while CBA did relatively better, falling 1.5 per cent.

Rio slumped 2.2 per cent and BHP dropped 1.3 per cent. South32 plunged 7.5 per cent.

Telstra closed 1.1 per cent lower and CSL 1.2 per cent.

Among the 27 stocks in the top 200 to gain was Santos, which climbed 3.1 per cent, and Seven West Media, which jumped 6.5 per cent on news of a buyback.

Winners and losers in the ASX 200 today.Bloomberg
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A series of interest rate increases in the US could trigger a bout of asset selling that would dry up liquidity and lead to big losses for investors, says the head of global credit for global investment manager AllianceBernstein.

Ashish Shah says although the long-anticipated start to monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve was unlikely to force panic selling, it could signal the start of renewed volatility in risk assets such as corporate bonds and overpriced growth stocks.

These have proved popular among yield-seeking investors - particularly from the retail side - since the advent of quantitative easing (QE), or bond-buying, by the Fed and other central banks in the wake of the global financial crisis.

While the QE programs have brought stability to sovereign bond markets and long-term financing, they had also given rise to crowded trades in credit, equity and other markets, said Shah.

When financial markets are liquid, the easy match-up of buyers and sellers means pricing and timing suits both parties. However, a market event which triggers mass selling of an asset can quickly drive down prices if vendors far outnumber buyers.

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Two Australian listed small-cap companies, Prima BioMed and SeaLink Travel Group, have a senior board director who is set to double as the country's next "first lady".

The business credentials of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who won the leadership on Monday from Tony Abbott, are often lauded, but his wife of 35 years Lucy Turnbull has had a formidable career of her own.

Mrs Turnbull is the chairwoman of cervical cancer vaccine developer Prima BioMed, as well as the deputy chairwoman of ferry operator Sealink Travel Group. She was previously chairwoman of technology companies WebCentral and Melbourne IT.

Prima BioMed shares have swung dramatically since Mrs Turnbull joined the board in 2010, as the vaccine developer has negotiated the risky and difficult process of developing new medical technology.

In September 2013 almost half of its market value was wiped out – when the stock halved from 8¢ to 4¢ – after the company said an early clinical trial failed to show any benefit from the vaccine.

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New day, new government - well, sort of, writes BusinessDay columnist Michael Pascoe:

At least the promise of a new government, even though in his first outing as restored Liberal leader, Malcolm Turnbull was very strongly indicating he would keep his less-right-wing proclivities under strict control.

Indeed, the only concrete policy issue touched on on Monday night was to confirm the Abbott regime's whacky "Direct Action" climate policy. It looks like Malcolm has learned from his mistakes as it was his commitment to an emissions trading scheme (ETS) that allowed Abbott to take his job as opposition leader by one vote.

That is a slight worry – an early example of Liberal Party politics trumping policy from the get-go of his prime ministership. Analyse Turnbull's first public words as PM and they were as much about hosing down his party's right wing as promising the nation better government.

After all that the coalition has invested in demonising the pricing of carbon, it shouldn't be a surprise that an ETS won't be adopted any time soon – never mind that a much higher proportion of economists recommend carbon pricing than dentists use whatever that brand of toothpaste is.

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The biggest risks for markets, according to the latest Merrill Lynch global fund manager survey:

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Here's how markets around the region are doing, with Chinese equities once again leading the falls and the local market not trailing by much:

  • Japan (Nikkei): +1%
  • Hong Kong: -0.3%
  • Shanghai: -2.5%
  • Korea: +0.2%
  • ASX200: -1.4%
  • Singapore: -0.8%

"The (Chinese) economy has not shown signs of a pick-up after a series of cuts in interest rates and reserve requirements, while expectations about yuan depreciation are still there," said Zhang Haidong, chief strategist at Jinkuang Investment Management in Shanghai. "Yuan-denominated assets face downward pressure. The market is still weak."

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So which sectors of the market are expected to do better under a PM Turnbull?

Prime Value Asset Management co chief investment officer ST Wong says media companies could benefit from hopes that Turnbull would carry on his advocacy work as Communications Minister.

"As Communications Minister, Malcolm Turnbull has been a strong advocate for media reforms in Australia, particularly the abolition of media ownership restrictions," Wong says.

"The abolition of the "reach rule" could gather further support with Malcolm Turnbull as PM."

Peak Asset Management executive director Niv Dagan agrees, adding Turnbull is a "free-market believer" and "conscious of Australia's weak business and consumer confidence".

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Last month, Smart Investor editor James Frost got a rare insight into how our 29th Prime Minister invests his money.

The Turnbulls' property holdings are dotted across Potts Point and Point Piper, extending to Canberra and the Hunter Valley, topped off with a New York apartment.

But it is Turnbull's equity market exposures – an intriguing mix of highly regarded hedge funds combined with passive exchange-traded funds or ETFs – that proves the most revealing.

First, there are the ETFs such as the SPDR S&P 500 that are available on the ASX to anyone for just 5.5 basis points and provide access to some of the biggest companies in the world, including Apple, Microsoft and Berkshire Hathaway.

Midway through 2014 Turnbull added Vanguard's Information Technology ETF, which contains many of the same big technology names – Apple, Google, Facebook – but in much higher proportions than the S&P 500.

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It was a wild ride, but the sharemarket ended up quite literally going nowhere under Tony Abbott, falling about 2 per cent in his nearly two years in office.

For the record, here's how that compares to other recent Australian prime ministers, this time using the All Ordinaries Index, which has been around for a lot longer than the S&P/ASX 200.

Keep in mind that the past few prime ministers had to deal with the global financial crisis and its aftermath, while their predecessors presided over what may one day be considered a golden age for global sharemarkets.

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