Weekly shipping data was lower for Rio Tinto and Fortescue, but higher for BHP according to Macquarie’s bespoke port data. Rio Tinto shares are down 0.5 per cent today and Fortescue shares are up 0.8 per cent.
“The market’s attention was directed to Ukrainian Force Majeure declarations (total 2021 exports were 44 Megatonnes (Mt), 18 Mt to China) and China’s steel production recovery, in spite of the National Development and Reform Commission’s intervention in China.”
Macquarie’s Commodity Desk Strategy team expects to see Chinese infrastructure spending accelerate after the National People’s Congress meeting this week.
Current iron ore spot prices were likely to generate 14 per cent free cash flow yield for BHP and Rio Tinto in 2021-22, and 8 per cent for Fortescue.
“For the smaller names, the spot free cash flow yields are 5 per cent for Deterra Royalties, but soft to zero per cent for Champion Iron and negative for Mineral Resources due to elevated capital spend.”
Ukrainian firm Ferrexpo declared Force Majeure on its pellet exports on 25 February because it was unable to use national railways and exporting was halted at the port of Pivdennyi, formerly known as Yuzhnyi, 30 kilometres east of Odessa. Ferrexpo said it would stockpile iron ore at its processing site in central Ukraine.
“The situation in Ukraine remains complex and changeable,” Switzerland-based Ferrexpo told customers and shareholders on 28 February.
“The Group is aware of reports of the Ukrainian railway network providing limited capacity to its freight customers, and the Group can confirm that it has dispatched a proportion of its production to the western border of Ukraine to customers in Europe. It remains unclear as to the ongoing availability of railing capacity and, if available, the quantity of pellets that the Group may be able to deliver to its European customers.”