That they were able to convince 136 countries to agree to a global minimum tax deal late last week is a triumph for the OECD and Mathias Cormann. Its implementation and the raising of the $US150 billion ($204.4 billion) of extra tax revenue the deal envisages, however, will be as complex and challenging as the 40-year effort and near-decade and a half of negotiations to get to this point.
In particular, the US – which created the breakthrough when the Biden administration joined enthusiastically in the attempt to end, or at least moderate, the revenue-destroying international competition on tax rates – will face stern opposition from Republicans who see it as undermining the competitiveness of America’s giant technology companies to enable the Democrats to pursue an ambitious tax-and-spend agenda.
As it is a win for multilateralism, it will also offend the hardcore Trumpists because it is the antithesis of the populist eco-nationalism and anti-multilateralism at the core of Trump’s economic policies.
It’s not just the US where implementation of the highly complex agreement might face obstacles.
Getting 136 individual countries with different tax regimes to pass roughly identical legislation to give effect to an agreement that is more template than fully developed detail – and doing that by the effective implementation date in 2023 – will be akin to herding stray cats.
The nature of the deal means that within the 136 countries that have signed up to the new regime there will be winners – mainly the wealthier economies and higher-tax regimes where the big tech companies are most active – and the tax havens and those, like Ireland, that have used low tax rates (in Ireland’s case, 12.5 per cent) to attract their international offices and the earnings they stream through them.
Read the rest of Bartho’s column here